Updated bracket projections based on computer power rankings on games played through 3/2/17 

Sectional Final Projections

Boys' Finals

Colonie

61

Bethlehem

57

 

56.99%

Lansingburgh

53

Averill Park

47

 

60.33%

Glens Falls

75

Mekeel Christian Academy

73

 

53.28%

Lake George

61

Stillwater

54

 

61.35%

Fort Ann

73

Argyle

67

 

60.83%

Girls' Finals

Shenendehowa

50

Shaker

47

 

55.89%

Averill Park

63

Amsterdam

57

 

60.50%

Glens Falls

54

Tamarac

46

 

63.24%

Hoosic Valley

41

Mekeel Christian Academy

39

 

53.15%

North Warren

55

Argyle

39

 

75.28%

(Semi-Final bracket projections, Quarter-Final projections and 1st run of bracket projections are listed below. 

You'll see how they've changed along the way based on current ranking and path to the title)

Semi-Finals projected through 2/26/17 rankings

Class AA Boys'

Winning

Winning

Semi-Final

Final

Colonie

59.89%

36.13%

Bethlehem

62.06%

29.84%

Schenectady

40.11%

20.28%

La Salle

37.94%

13.74%

Class A Boys'

Winning

Winning

Semi-Final

Final

Lansingburgh

67.62%

41.37%

Scotia

54.42%

25.36%

Averill Park

45.58%

19.29%

Mohonasen

32.38%

13.97%

Class B Boys'

Winning

Winning

Semi-Final

Final

Glens Falls

73.76%

41.29%

Mekeel Christian Academy

61.80%

33.87%

Voorheesville

38.20%

16.54%

Ichabod Crane

26.24%

8.30%

Class C Boys'

Winning

Winning

Semi-Final

Final

Lake George

50.52%

32.54%

Granville

49.48%

31.64%

Stillwater

61.63%

24.64%

Maple Hill

38.37%

11.18%

Class D Boys'

Winning

Winning

Semi-Final

Final

Fort Ann

68.66%

44.92%

Argyle

71.03%

32.76%

Oppenheim-Ephratah/St Johnsville

31.34%

14.73%

Northville

28.97%

7.59%

Class AA Girls'

Winning

Winning

Semi-Final

Final

Shenendehowa

65.69%

39.35%

Shaker

65.81%

33.43%

Columbia

34.31%

15.17%

Saratoga Springs

34.19%

12.04%

Class A Girls'

Winning

Winning

Semi-Final

Final

Averill Park

79.01%

52.37%

Amsterdam

78.27%

35.69%

Gloversville

20.99%

7.64%

Queensbury

21.73%

4.31%

Class B Girls'

Winning

Winning

Semi-Final

Final

Glens Falls

63.45%

41.53%

Tamarac

65.56%

29.13%

Hoosick Falls

36.55%

19.14%

Cohoes

34.44%

10.21%

Class C Girls'

Winning

Winning

Semi-Final

Final

Mekeel Christian Academy

73.52%

38.13%

Hoosic Valley

63.08%

37.27%

Lake George

36.92%

17.10%

Berne-Knox

26.48%

7.50%

Class D Girls'

Winning

Winning

Semi-Final

Final

North Warren

71.57%

49.72%

Heatly

61.33%

24.95%

Fort Ann

28.43%

13.58%

Argyle

38.67%

11.75%

8 of the 10 classifications are down to 8 teams (Quarterfinals). (Class A & D on the Boys’ side will be after tonight) (2/23)

I broke each team down into 4 categories based on their overall chance of winning. Listed as a Favorite, Contender, Dark Horse, or Long Shot

>= 25% chance to win= Favorite
>= 10% & < 25% chance to win= Contender
 >= 5% & < 10% chance to win= Dark Horse
 < 5% chance to win= Long Shot

Class AA Boys

Winning

Winning

Winning

Computer

QT. Final

Semi Final

Final

Projection

Colonie

59.96%

35.91%

21.42%

Contender

Shenendehowa

66.08%

37.11%

19.04%

Contender

Bethlehem

63.58%

34.48%

17.26%

Contender

Saratoga Springs

57.46%

27.12%

14.37%

Contender

Green Tech

40.04%

20.01%

9.97%

Dark Horse

Schenectady

42.54%

16.96%

7.73%

Dark Horse

Albany

36.42%

14.84%

5.43%

Dark Horse

La Salle

33.92%

13.57%

4.78%

Long Shot

Class B Boys

Winning

Winning

Winning

Computer

QT. Final

Semi Final

Final

Projection

Mekeel Christian Academy

87.19%

55.11%

32.84%

Favorite

Glens Falls

72.28%

52.00%

29.75%

Favorite

Voorheesville

64.39%

30.14%

15.55%

Contender

Hudson

51.74%

18.11%

6.49%

Dark Horse

Ichabod Crane

48.26%

16.15%

5.54%

Dark Horse

Schalmont

27.72%

13.75%

4.78%

Long Shot

Broadalbin-Perth

35.61%

11.96%

4.51%

Long Shot

Catskill

12.81%

2.79%

0.55%

Long Shot

Class C Boys

Winning

Winning

Winning

Computer

QT. Final

Semi Final

Final

Projection

Granville

73.31%

40.42%

27.51%

Favorite

Lake George

55.15%

29.51%

19.33%

Contender

Stillwater

55.86%

34.86%

14.74%

Contender

Schoharie

44.85%

21.77%

13.21%

Contender

Duanesburg

44.14%

25.03%

9.18%

Dark Horse

Maple Hill

55.18%

23.37%

7.63%

Dark Horse

Mechanicville

44.82%

16.74%

4.72%

Long Shot

Canajoharie

26.69%

8.31%

3.67%

Long Shot

Class AA Girls

Winning

Winning

Winning

Computer

QT. Final

Semi Final

Final

Projection

Shenendehowa

75.39%

52.01%

33.86%

Favorite

Shaker

78.37%

54.31%

29.14%

Favorite

Columbia

61.91%

25.75%

13.06%

Contender

Saratoga Springs

58.87%

23.84%

9.04%

Dark Horse

Catholic Central

38.09%

11.73%

4.60%

Long Shot

Bethlehem

24.61%

10.51%

4.13%

Long Shot

Albany

41.13%

13.38%

4.02%

Long Shot

Troy

21.63%

8.47%

2.15%

Long Shot

Class A Girls

Winning

Winning

Winning

Computer

QT. Final

Semi Final

Final

Projection

Averill Park

86.62%

68.05%

48.58%

Favorite

Amsterdam

74.79%

57.54%

27.86%

Favorite

Scotia

58.48%

17.28%

7.95%

Dark Horse

Mohonasen

55.11%

17.10%

4.32%

Long Shot

Gloversville

41.52%

9.61%

3.67%

Long Shot

Lansingburgh

25.21%

13.31%

3.41%

Long Shot

Queensbury

44.89%

12.05%

2.61%

Long Shot

Hudson Falls

13.38%

5.06%

1.60%

Long Shot

Class B Girls

Winning

Winning

Winning

Computer

QT. Final

Semi Final

Final

Projection

Glens Falls

90.30%

62.25%

41.24%

Favorite

Tamarac

85.10%

50.69%

23.40%

Contender

Watervliet

61.53%

30.94%

12.74%

Contender

Hoosick Falls

61.17%

24.12%

12.43%

Contender

Hudson

38.83%

11.55%

4.68%

Long Shot

Cohoes

38.47%

15.17%

4.66%

Long Shot

Johnstown

14.90%

3.21%

0.44%

Long Shot

Fonda

9.70%

2.08%

0.41%

Long Shot

Class C Girls

Winning

Winning

Winning

Computer

QT. Final

Semi Final

Final

Projection

Hoosic Valley

65.29%

43.11%

27.99%

Favorite

Mekeel Christian Academy

67.63%

50.59%

27.48%

Favorite

Lake George

50.96%

20.23%

10.11%

Contender

Middleburgh

49.04%

19.03%

9.34%

Dark Horse

Mechanicville

34.71%

17.63%

8.87%

Dark Horse

Berne-Knox

65.70%

22.96%

7.71%

Dark Horse

Greenwich

32.37%

18.99%

6.97%

Dark Horse

Warrensburg /Bolton

34.30%

7.45%

1.54%

Long Shot

Class D Girls

Winning

Winning

Winning

Computer

Open Rd

QT. Final

Semi

Projection

North Warren

75.53%

57.42%

40.40%

Favorite

Heatly

84.34%

53.43%

24.97%

Contender

Fort Ann

73.04%

25.50%

12.55%

Contender

Argyle

53.37%

23.52%

8.40%

Dark Horse

Hartford

46.63%

19.10%

6.27%

Dark Horse

Oppenheim-Ephratah/St Johnsville

24.47%

12.61%

5.61%

Dark Horse

Salem

26.96%

4.46%

1.20%

Long Shot

Northville

15.66%

3.96%

0.60%

Long Shot

 Original bracket projections after the Sectionals were drawn. Done on Friday the 17th

Class AA Boys

Winning

Winning

Winning

Winning

Computer

Open Rd

QT. Final

Semi

Champ

Projection

Colonie

100.00%

62.54%

39.94%

23.51%

Contender

Shenendehowa

100.00%

69.84%

38.00%

19.96%

Contender

Bethlehem

97.45%

56.07%

30.53%

15.60%

Contender

Saratoga Springs

80.49%

48.92%

22.83%

11.63%

Contender

Troy

62.74%

30.37%

15.70%

7.58%

Dark Horse

Schenectady

63.27%

31.75%

12.92%

5.80%

Dark Horse

Green Tech

54.73%

21.62%

11.62%

5.63%

Dark Horse

Shaker

45.27%

15.84%

7.79%

3.41%

Long Shot

La Salle

58.78%

19.58%

7.36%

2.64%

Long Shot

Albany

37.26%

13.45%

5.28%

1.89%

Long Shot

CBA

36.73%

13.81%

3.93%

1.26%

Long Shot

Guilderland

41.22%

10.58%

3.13%

0.88%

Long Shot

Niskayuna

19.51%

5.52%

0.97%

0.20%

Long Shot

Catholic Central

2.55%

0.11%

0.01%

0.01%

Long Shot

Class A Boys

Winning

Winning

Winning

Winning

Computer

Open Rd

QT. Final

Semi

Champ

Projection

Lansingburgh

100.00%

87.65%

60.37%

40.38%

Favorite

Scotia

100.00%

80.80%

47.02%

21.63%

Contender

Averill Park

100.00%

61.53%

31.20%

12.83%

Contender

Amsterdam

57.91%

57.90%

22.81%

11.71%

Contender

Mohonasen

42.09%

42.09%

13.67%

5.95%

Dark Horse

Queensbury

86.39%

37.09%

16.31%

5.65%

Dark Horse

Hudson Falls

70.11%

16.13%

4.85%

1.02%

Long Shot

Gloversville

51.47%

6.54%

1.70%

0.42%

Long Shot

Burnt Hills

48.53%

5.80%

1.44%

0.34%

Long Shot

Bishop Maginn

29.89%

3.07%

0.46%

0.04%

Long Shot

South Glens Falls

13.61%

1.37%

0.16%

0.01%

Long Shot

Class B Boys

Winning

Winning

Winning

Winning

Computer

Rd 16

QT. Final

Semi

Champ

Projection

Mekeel Christian Academy

91.57%

75.81%

52.05%

31.77%

Favorite

Glens Falls

92.84%

70.00%

52.95%

31.65%

Favorite

Voorheesville

74.84%

51.19%

24.96%

12.92%

Contender

Hudson

75.77%

43.74%

15.92%

6.08%

Dark Horse

Ichabod Crane

66.03%

35.66%

12.24%

4.42%

Long Shot

Schalmont

56.42%

17.27%

9.25%

3.40%

Long Shot

Broadalbin-Perth

53.86%

21.41%

7.16%

2.56%

Long Shot

Hoosick Falls

66.34%

16.44%

6.23%

1.94%

Long Shot

Cohoes

46.14%

16.71%

5.07%

1.64%

Long Shot

Watervliet

43.58%

11.15%

5.27%

1.64%

Long Shot

Ravena

25.16%

10.69%

2.79%

0.78%

Long Shot

Schuylerville

33.97%

13.05%

2.80%

0.64%

Long Shot

Catskill

33.66%

4.86%

1.15%

0.22%

Long Shot

Bishop Gibbons

24.23%

7.56%

1.20%

0.20%

Long Shot

Johnstown

8.43%

2.89%

0.58%

0.09%

Long Shot

Coxsackie-Athens

7.16%

1.58%

0.36%

0.05%

Long Shot

Corinth

1.51%

0.18%

0.01%

0.01%

Long Shot

Tamarac

2.08%

0.19%

0.02%

0.01%

Long Shot

Class C Boys

Winning

Winning

Winning

Winning

Computer

Rd 16

QT. Final

Semi

Champ

Projection

Granville

69.37%

48.90%

27.83%

17.94%

Contender

Lake George

62.73%

36.34%

21.38%

13.48%

Contender

Greenville

63.93%

39.96%

23.32%

11.48%

Contender

Schoharie

64.24%

33.32%

18.68%

11.26%

Contender

Stillwater

68.47%

41.05%

22.80%

10.77%

Contender

Duanesburg

66.96%

34.43%

17.59%

7.54%

Dark Horse

Mayfield

59.89%

27.77%

13.83%

5.63%

Dark Horse

Cambridge

37.27%

16.86%

7.82%

3.95%

Long Shot

Hoosic Valley

50.81%

18.16%

6.61%

2.91%

Long Shot

Maple Hill

36.07%

17.53%

7.80%

2.78%

Long Shot

Canajoharie

49.19%

17.23%

6.14%

2.66%

Long Shot

Middleburgh

30.63%

15.71%

5.85%

2.63%

Long Shot

Saratoga Central Catholic

35.76%

13.48%

5.67%

2.61%

Long Shot

Mechanicville

40.11%

14.75%

5.92%

1.87%

Long Shot

Berne-Knox

31.53%

13.03%

4.81%

1.42%

Long Shot

Hadley-Luzerne

33.04%

11.48%

3.94%

1.07%

Long Shot

Greenwich

22.72%

7.63%

2.18%

0.46%

Long Shot

Rensselaer

17.25%

5.91%

1.26%

0.35%

Long Shot

Galway

15.48%

2.88%

0.58%

0.13%

Long Shot

Waterford

12.26%

2.32%

0.42%

0.08%

Long Shot

Berlin

10.08%

1.61%

0.22%

0.02%

Long Shot

Class D Boys

Winning

Winning

Winning

Winning

Computer

Open Rd

QT. Final

Semi

Champ

Projection

Fort Ann

100.00%

93.16%

66.07%

44.75%

Favorite

Argyle

100.00%

83.23%

62.96%

30.63%

Favorite

Whitehall

100.00%

51.98%

16.70%

7.85%

Dark Horse

Oppenheim-Ephratah/St Johnsville

90.21%

46.97%

15.91%

7.79%

Dark Horse

Germantown

100.00%

54.34%

16.37%

3.99%

Long Shot

Northville

86.33%

43.74%

13.42%

3.34%

Long Shot

North Warren

76.56%

15.39%

6.86%

1.38%

Long Shot

Fort Edward

61.53%

5.07%

1.03%

0.21%

Long Shot

Heatly

38.47%

1.78%

0.23%

0.03%

Long Shot

New Lebanon

23.44%

1.38%

0.27%

0.02%

Long Shot

Loudonville Christian

13.67%

1.92%

0.12%

0.01%

Long Shot

Salem

9.79%

1.05%

0.06%

0.01%

Long Shot

Class AA Girls

Winning

Winning

Winning

Winning

Computer

Open Rd

QT. Final

Semi

Champ

Projection

Shenendehowa

100.00%

78.84%

54.65%

35.68%

Favorite

Shaker

100.00%

75.64%

52.42%

27.79%

Favorite

Columbia

100.00%

68.80%

28.38%

14.43%

Contender

Saratoga Springs

58.87%

58.87%

23.77%

8.88%

Dark Horse

Albany

41.13%

41.13%

13.31%

3.93%

Long Shot

Catholic Central

73.30%

26.75%

7.81%

2.95%

Long Shot

Bethlehem

66.30%

16.56%

7.27%

2.90%

Long Shot

Colonie

59.00%

16.07%

7.41%

2.27%

Long Shot

Troy

41.00%

8.29%

3.09%

0.73%

Long Shot

Niskayuna

33.70%

4.60%

1.32%

0.34%

Long Shot

Guilderland

26.70%

4.45%

0.57%

0.10%

Long Shot

Class A Girls

Winning

Winning

Winning

Winning

Computer

Open Rd

QT. Final

Semi

Champ

Projection

Averill Park

100.00%

89.36%

69.78%

49.70%

Favorite

Amsterdam

100.00%

76.13%

57.99%

27.63%

Favorite

Scotia

99.02%

58.85%

17.43%

8.14%

Dark Horse

Mohonasen

100.00%

56.44%

17.55%

4.31%

Long Shot

Gloversville

100.00%

41.13%

9.27%

3.52%

Long Shot

Queensbury

88.68%

42.39%

12.41%

2.85%

Long Shot

South Glens Falls

51.74%

12.69%

6.48%

1.57%

Long Shot

Lansingburgh

48.26%

11.18%

5.51%

1.27%

Long Shot

Hudson Falls

61.94%

7.83%

2.81%

0.85%

Long Shot

Holy Names

38.06%

2.81%

0.71%

0.15%

Long Shot

Albany Leadership Charter HS

11.32%

1.16%

0.05%

0.01%

Long Shot

Bishop Maginn

0.98%

0.02%

0.01%

0.01%

Long Shot

Class B Girls

Winning

Winning

Winning

Winning

Computer

Open Rd

QT. Final

Semi

Champ

Projection

Glens Falls

100.00%

90.44%

65.67%

45.31%

Favorite

Tamarac

90.62%

74.09%

44.76%

19.70%

Contender

Watervliet

87.21%

62.02%

34.72%

14.41%

Contender

Hoosick Falls

80.65%

54.05%

20.76%

11.16%

Contender

Hudson

72.05%

32.31%

9.21%

3.92%

Long Shot

Cohoes

73.35%

28.89%

11.82%

3.22%

Long Shot

Cobleskill

58.24%

14.58%

4.40%

0.78%

Long Shot

Voorheesville

56.70%

6.11%

1.70%

0.42%

Long Shot

Johnstown

41.76%

8.11%

1.93%

0.25%

Long Shot

Emma Willard

27.95%

6.95%

0.95%

0.22%

Long Shot

Schuylerville

19.35%

6.69%

0.93%

0.22%

Long Shot

Fonda

43.30%

3.45%

0.78%

0.15%

Long Shot

Catskill

26.65%

5.32%

1.14%

0.13%

Long Shot

Schalmont

12.79%

3.78%

0.71%

0.07%

Long Shot

Ravena

9.38%

3.22%

0.52%

0.04%

Long Shot

Class C Girls

Winning

Winning

Winning

Winning

Computer

Open Rd

QT. Final

Semi

Champ

Projection

Hoosic Valley

90.43%

63.22%

42.67%

29.39%

Favorite

Mekeel Christian Academy

75.32%

52.24%

39.34%

21.17%

Contender

Lake George

75.37%

43.23%

18.94%

10.65%

Contender

Middleburgh

76.75%

42.29%

18.04%

9.94%

Dark Horse

Mechanicville

67.60%

26.68%

14.16%

7.78%

Dark Horse

Greenwich

55.47%

21.83%

13.03%

4.80%

Long Shot

Berne-Knox

51.03%

33.15%

12.90%

4.27%

Long Shot

Stillwater

48.97%

31.34%

11.90%

3.83%

Long Shot

Maple Hill

44.53%

15.32%

8.33%

2.67%

Long Shot

Cambridge

24.68%

10.60%

5.34%

1.53%

Long Shot

Greenville

32.40%

7.95%

2.84%

1.07%

Long Shot

Warrensburg /Bolton

50.46%

18.03%

4.68%

0.99%

Long Shot

Mayfield

49.54%

17.49%

4.47%

0.93%

Long Shot

Galway

24.63%

7.88%

1.65%

0.51%

Long Shot

Chatham

23.25%

6.61%

1.25%

0.36%

Long Shot

Cairo-Durham

12.63%

3.31%

1.09%

0.17%

Long Shot

Rensselaer

9.57%

2.15%

0.45%

0.10%

Long Shot

Bishop Gibbons

6.71%

1.16%

0.17%

0.03%

Long Shot

Canajoharie

10.57%

1.52%

0.13%

0.02%

Long Shot

Granville

21.40%

2.64%

0.20%

0.01%

Long Shot

Class D Girls

Winning

Winning

Winning

Winning

Computer

Open Rd

QT. Final

Semi

Champ

Projection

North Warren

100.00%

79.70%

61.02%

43.31%

Favorite

Heatly

100.00%

77.70%

50.65%

23.47%

Contender

Fort Ann

85.22%

57.36%

20.12%

10.21%

Contender

Argyle

100.00%

61.78%

27.41%

9.70%

Dark Horse

Oppenheim-Ephratah/St Johnsville

73.35%

17.82%

9.28%

4.18%

Long Shot

Hartford

70.86%

31.17%

12.08%

3.66%

Long Shot

Germantown

65.98%

28.59%

7.07%

2.73%

Long Shot

Fort Edward

67.41%

17.76%

7.24%

1.79%

Long Shot

Salem

34.02%

9.89%

1.41%

0.35%

Long Shot

New Lebanon

29.14%

7.05%

1.48%

0.23%

Long Shot

Loudonville Christian

26.65%

2.49%

0.73%

0.17%

Long Shot

Northville

32.59%

4.54%

1.13%

0.15%

Long Shot

Whitehall

14.78%

4.16%

0.36%

0.06%

Long Shot