(Breakdown of classes based on 2/6 rankings)
🏀 SECTION 2 BOYS — FULL TIER BREAKDOWN
(NOTE: Will go a bit more in-depth on player/team analysis once the actual brackets are set for the tournaments)
🔵 CLASS AAA
| Tier | Teams (Rating order) |
|---|---|
| Elite | CBA (56.07), Shaker (46.96) |
| Contender | Shenendehowa (44.07) |
| Middle | Green Tech (34.21) |
| Longshot | Albany (30.81), Colonie (28.08), Saratoga (26.65), Guilderland (26.65), Schenectady (19.68) |
Read:
Three teams: CBA, Shaker and Shen look to be top teams in this class then a slight dropoff to the lower seeds.
🔵 CLASS AA
| Tier | Teams |
|---|---|
| Elite | Niskayuna (38.85) |
| Contender | Amsterdam (35.39), Columbia (32.93), Bethlehem (31.67), Troy (31.46) |
| Middle | La Salle (25.17), Burnt Hills (22.70) |
| Longshot | Queensbury (17.37), Mohonasen (17.37), Ballston Spa (16.43), South Glens Falls (0.77) |
Read:
Very dense contender tier, strong upset potential in semifinals.
🔵 CLASS A
| Tier | Teams |
|---|---|
| Elite | Hudson (41.76), Lansingburgh (29.84) |
| Contender | Glens Falls (26.96), Watervliet (23.40), Averill Park (22.89) |
| Middle | Hudson Falls (17.76), Ravena (15.46), Schalmont (14.32) |
| Longshot | Gloversville, Cobleskill, Scotia, ICC, Broadalbin-Perth, Cohoes |
Read:
Hudson is the clear early favorite and they have double digit wins over a couple of the contenders (Watervliet & Averill Park). Lansingburgh has proved they are second best heading into the final weeks of the regular season.
🔵 CLASS B
| Tier | Teams |
|---|---|
| Elite | KIPP Charter (36.94), Catskill (23.40), Tamarac (20.76) |
| Contender | Voorheesville (13.92), Greenville (12.34) |
| Middle | Johnstown, Schuylerville, Fonda, Hoosick Falls, Corinth |
| Longshot | Taconic Hills, Coxsackie-Athens, Granville, Chatham, Cairo-Durham, Mechanicville, NDBG |
Read:
Kipp Chater is the favorite but this classification has a large middle tier → true chaos class on the way to the title.
🔵 CLASS C
| Tier | Teams |
|---|---|
| Elite | Berne-Knox-Westerlo (36.94), Saratoga Catholic (19.32), Stillwater (17.76) |
| Contender | Cambridge, Greenwich, Duanesburg, Maple Hill, Fort Plain, Rensselaer |
| Middle | Schoharie, Hoosic Valley, Middleburgh, Loudonville Christian, Canajoharie, Whitehall |
| Longshot | Lake George, Mayfield, Galway, OESJ, Waterford, Warrensburg, Hadley-Luzerne, Berlin-New Lebanon |
Read:
Large class, wide spread of teams/ratings with Berne-Knox the overwhelming favorite, top-heavy but deep mid-tier.
🔵 CLASS D
| Tier | Teams |
|---|---|
| Elite | Northville (3.01), North Warren (2.01) |
| Contender | Fort Ann (-0.39), Germantown (-5.07) |
| Middle | Hawthorne Valley (-19.08) |
| Longshot | Fort Edward, Hartford, Argyle, Salem |
Read:
Small field, clean hierarchy, limited upset lanes.
🔢 ROUND-BY-ROUND UPSET PROBABILITIES
(Now properly aligned to tier density)
| Class | Early Rounds | Semis | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAA | 10–12% | 18% | 22% |
| AA | 20% | 28% | 31% |
| A | 18% | 23% | 27% |
| B | 30% | 36% | 33% |
| C | 15% | 22% | 25% |
| D | — | 21% | 26% |
🏀 SECTION 2 BOYS — WEEKLY CLASS BLURBS
🔵 Boys Class AAA
CBA and Shaker continue to separate themselves at the top of the Class AAA ratings, with both teams rating well above the class mean. Shenendehowa remains the closest challenger, while the rest of the field faces a clear uphill climb against the top tier. Barring matchup chaos, the championship picture remains concentrated at the top.
🔵 Boys Class AA
Niskayuna holds the top rating in Class AA, but the margin behind them remains slim. Amsterdam, Columbia, Bethlehem, and Troy form a tightly packed contender group, keeping the class highly competitive. With minimal separation among the top five teams, semifinal matchups are likely to determine the eventual champion.
🔵 Boys Class A
Hudson continues to rate as the clear leader in Class A, with Lansingburgh maintaining separation from the rest of the field. Glens Falls, Watervliet, and Averill Park remain firmly in the contender tier, capable of capitalizing on favorable matchups. The depth of the class suggests limited early-round surprises, but increasing volatility as the bracket tightens.
🔵 Boys Class B
Class B remains the most volatile bracket in Section 2. KIPP Charter, Catskill, and Tamarac currently rate at the top, but a deep middle tier keeps upset probability high throughout the postseason. Matchups and momentum are expected to outweigh seed position, particularly in the quarterfinal and semifinal rounds.
🔵 Boys Class C
Berne-Knox-Westerlo leads a top-heavy Class C field, joined by Saratoga Catholic and Stillwater in the elite tier. Below them, a wide middle group creates potential for competitive early-round games, but the rating gaps suggest the title race remains concentrated among the top teams.
🔵 Boys Class D
Northville and North Warren continue to rate above the rest of the Class D field, forming a clear top tier. Fort Ann and Germantown remain the most viable challengers, while the remainder of the bracket faces significant rating gaps. Early-round execution will be critical for any upset attempts.
