(Breakdown of classes based on 2/6 rankings)
🏀 SECTION 2 GIRLS — TIER BREAKDOWN
(NOTE: Will go a bit more in-depth on player/team analysis once the actual brackets are set for the tournaments)
🔵 CLASS AAA
| Tier | Teams (Rating order) |
|---|---|
| Elite | Shaker (61.04) |
| Contender | Colonie (55.57), Shenendehowa (51.07) |
| Middle | Albany (33.85) |
| Longshot | Saratoga Springs (18.12), Guilderland (10.90), Schenectady (-9.59) |
Read:
One dominant team, two clear challengers, then a sharp drop.
🔵 CLASS AA
| Tier | Teams |
|---|---|
| Elite | Columbia (39.94), Troy (35.99) |
| Contender | Bethlehem (27.21), Ballston Spa (25.96), Burnt Hills (24.99) |
| Middle | Mohonasen (23.51), Amsterdam (20.82) |
| Longshot | Niskayuna (15.62), South Glens Falls (14.13), Queensbury (1.17), Catholic Central (0.06) |
Read:
Two-team top tier, very playable contender band, real semifinal volatility.
🔵 CLASS A
| Tier | Teams |
|---|---|
| Elite | Albany Academy (43.05), Glens Falls (27.88) |
| Contender | Holy Names (23.51), Averill Park (22.46), Schalmont (17.63), Scotia (14.13), Broadalbin-Perth (13.61) |
| Middle | Ravena (11.87), ICC (10.28), Hudson Falls (1.42), Cobleskill (1.08), Cohoes (0.45) |
| Longshot | Lansingburgh, Gloversville, Emma Willard, Hudson |
Read:
Two clear leaders, deep contender tier, dangerous mid-pack.
🔵 CLASS B
| Tier | Teams |
|---|---|
| Elite | Mechanicville (25.00), Coxsackie-Athens (20.01), Corinth (17.89) |
| Contender | Voorheesville (17.06), Catskill (16.25), La Salle (13.07) |
| Middle | Watervliet, Tamarac, Johnstown, Granville, Schuylerville, Greenville |
| Longshot | Hoosick Falls, Fonda, Taconic Hills, Canajoharie, Chatham |
Read:
Multiple elite-level teams, large middle → high upset frequency.
🔵 CLASS C
| Tier | Teams |
|---|---|
| Elite | Greenwich (45.13), Stillwater (34.79), Berne-Knox-Westerlo (24.43) |
| Contender | Whitehall, OESJ, Lake George, Maple Hill, Mayfield, Galway |
| Middle | Hoosic Valley, Waterford, Warrensburg |
| Longshot | Rensselaer, Cambridge, Hadley-Luzerne, NDBG, KIPP Charter, Schoharie, Middleburgh, Berlin–New Lebanon |
Read:
Top-heavy but not single-dominant — multiple title paths.
🔵 CLASS D
| Tier | Teams |
|---|---|
| Elite | Northville (4.03), Saratoga Catholic (2.82) |
| Contender | Hartford (-4.14), Argyle (-12.06), Duanesburg (-12.17) |
| Longshot | Mekeel Christian, North Warren, Salem, Germantown, Fort Edward |
Read:
Small field, clear top, limited upset lanes.
🔢 ROUND-BY-ROUND UPSET PROBABILITIES (GIRLS)
| Class | Early Rounds | Semis | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAA | 8–10% | 16% | 20% |
| AA | 20% | 27% | 30% |
| A | 22% | 28% | 31% |
| B | 28% | 34% | 32% |
| C | 18% | 24% | 27% |
| D | — | 22% | 26% |
🏀 SECTION 2 GIRLS — WEEKLY CLASS BLURBS
🔵 Girls Class AAA
Shaker remains the clear standard in Class AAA, rating more than a full standard deviation above the class mean. Colonie and Shenendehowa continue to track as the primary challengers, while the rest of the field sits well behind the top tier. The path to the title runs directly through Shaker.
🔵 Girls Class AA
Columbia and Troy sit atop the Class AA ratings, forming a narrow elite tier. Bethlehem, Ballston Spa, and Burnt Hills remain within striking distance, keeping the class highly competitive. With several teams clustered near the mean, matchup-specific advantages are expected to play a major role in postseason outcomes.
🔵 Girls Class A
Albany Academy leads Class A with a significant rating advantage, while Glens Falls maintains separation as the primary challenger. A deep contender tier follows, creating strong upset potential in the middle of the bracket. The class projects as one of the more competitive fields entering postseason play.
🔵 Girls Class B
Mechanicville, Coxsackie-Athens, and Corinth currently form the top tier in Class B, but the rating distribution suggests a highly fluid bracket. With several teams clustered closely behind, Class B continues to project as one of the most upset-prone classifications in Section 2.
🔵 Girls Class C
Greenwich, Stillwater, and Berne-Knox-Westerlo rate clearly above the rest of the Class C field. While the contender tier provides depth, the rating gaps indicate the championship race is likely to stay within the elite group unless significant variance intervenes.
🔵 Girls Class D
Northville and Saratoga Catholic remain the highest-rated teams in Class D, creating a clear separation at the top of the bracket. Hartford, Argyle, and Duanesburg profile as the most likely challengers, though rating gaps suggest limited margin for error against the elite tier.
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