(Brady Olsen of Niskayuna looks to lead his team to a Class AA three-peat. Photo by Ed Bemiss.)
2025-26 brackets are from Section2atlethics.org.
Every tournament takes into account each team’s current ranking and their current path to the title. Teams are broken down into 4 different categories based on their overall chance to win it all according to the rankings. They are as followed:
Each team is automatically classified into four categories based on their pre-tournament odds of winning their respective bracket. Here’s the key:
>= 25% chance to win= Favorite
>= 10% & < 25% chance to win= Contender
>= 5% & < 10% chance to win= Dark Horse
< 5% chance to win= Long Shot
NEW! H.S. hoop simulation. Play a single game or sim any of this year's tournaments.
Section2Basketball.com Game Simulator
Class AAA
Sectional brackets. Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings and thoughts on each classification.
Full Bracket Projections
| Class AAA Boys | Winning | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| Opening Rd. | QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| CBA- 1 | 100.00% | 85.84% | 68.59% | 47.82% | Favorite |
| Shaker- 2 | 100.00% | 83.25% | 52.76% | 24.47% | Contender |
| Shen-3 | 100.00% | 66.89% | 32.01% | 12.49% | Contender |
| Green Tech-4 | 100.00% | 64.76% | 18.99% | 8.13% | Dark Horse |
| Albany-6 | 100.00% | 33.11% | 10.65% | 2.65% | Long Shot |
| Colonie-5 | 100.00% | 35.24% | 6.57% | 1.92% | Long Shot |
| Guilderland-9 | 51.02% | 7.37% | 3.08% | 0.94% | Long Shot |
| Saratoga-8 | 48.98% | 6.79% | 2.77% | 0.82% | Long Shot |
| Schenectady-7 | 100.00% | 16.75% | 4.58% | 0.76% | Long Shot |
A few questions based on the numbers:
Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?
Yes. CBA is 19-0 on the season. The Brothers have held off all challengers up to this point led by their stifling defense and clutch play in tight games. J.J. Osinski is their leading scorer but they are a deep tough team. Austin Osinski, Jack Hulett, Pop Coffil and Jason Vogel among the great supporting cast.
Shaker is the defending section and NY State champ and if they are healthy the most likely team to give CBA a test. Bless Demand, Melvin Brown and Marcelin Mukendi lead the Blue Bison.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below the top contenders that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?
#4 Green Tech is interesting. They are playing well under head Coach Will Brown. They suffocate you on defense and turn that into quick easy hoops. If they can shoot it better in the half court they could suprise one of the top teams. Most likely a year away from truly contending. Shen is an enigma. The last two years they have had great starts to the season but didn't finish well. In fact it's been five years since Shen has made it out of the quarter-final round and advanced to Glens Falls. They've lost their last two games, to finish this season, but still ended with a glossy 16-4 record. I like their team toughness this year but they will be tested by an athletic Albany team in the round of 8.
Additional thoughts:
The opening round game between Guilderland (51.02%) vs Saratoga (48.98%) should be a fun watch.
🏀 Class AAA Boys — Model Snapshot
🔥 At a Glance
-
Top Title Chances:
CBA (47.82%)
Shaker (24.47%)
Shen (12.49%) -
🎢 Chaos Index (Top 3 Combined): 84.78%
→ Chalk Heavy -
⚡ Only One Real Dark Horse:
Green Tech (8.13%)
🎯 Model Read
Class AAA projects as one of the most top-heavy brackets in Section 2.
CBA alone carries nearly 48% championship equity — almost double the next closest team. Combined, the top two seeds (CBA + Shaker) control over 72% of the title probability.
After Shen, the drop-off becomes steep. The model suggests a very narrow championship path centered around the top tier.
🚨 Upset Alert
Early-round volatility is minimal:
-
ToGuilderland (9) vs. Saratoga (8) is essentially a coin flip (51% / 49%).
Real disruption would most likely occur in the semifinals — not before.
🎯 Seed vs Model Check
-
The model strongly validates the #1 seed: CBA is the clear favorite at 47.82%.
-
The top three seeds align perfectly with championship probability order.
-
No lower seed carries meaningful title equity beyond Green Tech (4 seed, 8.13%).
This bracket projects very cleanly by seed.
🏀 Bottom Line
Class AAA Boys is chalk-driven. The model heavily favors CBA, with Shaker as the primary challenger. Anything outside of a 1 vs 2 or 1 vs 3 championship path would register as a significant statistical surprise.
Click team name for season results.
| Albany | AAA |
| CBA | AAA |
| Colonie | AAA |
| Green Tech | AAA |
| Guilderland | AAA |
| Saratoga | AAA |
| Schenectady | AAA |
| Shaker | AAA |
| Shen | AAA |
Class AA
Sectional brackets. Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings and thoughts on each classification.
Full Bracket Projections
| Class AA Boys | Winning | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| Rd 16 | QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Niskayuna- 2 | 100.00% | 80.12% | 52.24% | 31.38% | Favorite |
| Amsterdam- 1 | 100.00% | 73.14% | 42.58% | 22.92% | Contender |
| Columbia- 3 | 100.00% | 64.28% | 28.80% | 13.98% | Contender |
| Bethlehem- 4 | 100.00% | 54.90% | 27.61% | 13.24% | Contender |
| Troy- 5 | 100.00% | 45.10% | 20.55% | 8.89% | Dark Horse |
| La Salle- 6 | 81.68% | 33.37% | 12.14% | 4.80% | Long Shot |
| Burnt Hills- 9 | 57.22% | 16.82% | 6.21% | 2.08% | Long Shot |
| Mohonasen- 7 | 51.34% | 10.44% | 3.50% | 1.01% | Long Shot |
| Ballston Spa- 10 | 48.66% | 9.44% | 3.05% | 0.84% | Long Shot |
| Queensbury- 8 | 42.78% | 10.04% | 3.04% | 0.83% | Long Shot |
| South Glens Falls- 11 | 18.32% | 2.35% | 0.27% | 0.03% | Long Shot |
A few questions based on the numbers:
Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?
No. Amsterdam is the #1 seed but two time defending sectional champ Niskayuna rates as the best chance to cut the nets down. Amsterdam has won 11 games in a row and just knocked of AAA power Shen in a non-league contest on Sunday. Aundray Fowler, Rocco Natale and C.J. Miller lead the Rams attack. Niskayuna is paced by Brady Olsen, Will DiCaprio, Jake McDonald and Poem Staten.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below the top contenders that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?
Seeds #3-5. (Columbia, Bethlehem and Troy) can cause some trouble for the top teams. Bethlehem is down all-area player Kiernan Barnes but they found a way to win a game vs. Shaker without him, so they can still scrap and claw on any night. Troy was in the Class AA Final last year. Kieren Poissant and Ander Mocerine are players to watch for Columbia.
Additional thoughts:
-
Mohonasen (51.34%) vs Ballston Spa (48.66%)
-
Burnt Hills (57.22%) vs Queensbury (42.78%)
7/10 and 8/9 range both competitive.
🏀 Class AA Boys — Model Snapshot
🔥 At a Glance
-
Top Title Chances:
Niskayuna (31.38%)
Amsterdam (22.92%)
Columbia (13.98%)
Bethlehem (13.24%) -
🎢 Chaos Index (Top 3 Combined): 68.28%
→ Lean Chalk -
⚡ Dark Horse:
Troy (8.89%)
🎯 Model Read
Class AA projects with a clear top tier, but not the dominance seen in AAA.
Niskayuna leads at 31.38%, with Amsterdam firmly in the mix at 22.92%. Combined, the top two seeds control just over 54% of championship equity, leaving room for disruption — but still favoring chalk.
Columbia and Bethlehem sit in a tight secondary contender tier, while Troy profiles as the most viable lower-seed threat.
🚨 Upset Alert
Early-round volatility is limited at the top — the top five seeds all project at 100% to win their opening game.
However, the 7–10 seed range tightens considerably:
-
Mohonasen (51.34%)
-
Burnt Hills (57.22%)
-
Ballston Spa (48.66%)
-
Queensbury (42.78%)
Those matchups project far less stable.
🎯 Seed vs Model Check
-
The model slightly favors #2 Niskayuna over #1 Amsterdam in championship probability (31.38% vs 22.92%).
-
Seeds 3 and 4 (Columbia and Bethlehem) align closely with projection order.
-
No lower seed outside Troy carries significant title equity.
This bracket mostly follows seed structure, with only a subtle edge shift at the top.
🏀 Bottom Line
Class AA leans toward chalk, but not overwhelmingly so. Niskayuna and Amsterdam control the title picture, yet the secondary contender tier remains strong enough to shape semifinal outcomes. Expect stability early, with the most likely movement coming in the final four.
Click team name for season results.
| Amsterdam | AA |
| Ballston Spa | AA |
| Bethlehem | AA |
| Burnt Hills | AA |
| Columbia | AA |
| La Salle | AA |
| Mohonasen | AA |
| Niskayuna | AA |
| Queensbury | AA |
| South Glens Falls | AA |
| Troy | AA |
Class A
Sectional brackets. Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings and thoughts on each classification.
Full Bracket Projections
| Class A Boys | Winning | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| Rd 16 | QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Hudson- 1 | 100.00% | 86.51% | 67.93% | 48.38% | Favorite |
| Lansingburgh- 3 | 100.00% | 71.67% | 41.74% | 18.03% | Contender |
| Glens Falls- 2 | 100.00% | 67.86% | 36.07% | 14.72% | Contender |
| Averill Park- 4 | 85.74% | 52.07% | 15.86% | 7.26% | Dark Horse |
| Watervliet- 5 | 72.17% | 36.49% | 9.73% | 4.00% | Long Shot |
| Hudson Falls- 6 | 68.02% | 22.50% | 9.29% | 2.63% | Long Shot |
| Ravena- 7 | 51.78% | 17.04% | 6.20% | 1.62% | Long Shot |
| Gloversville- 10 | 48.22% | 15.10% | 5.25% | 1.30% | Long Shot |
| Schalmont- 9 | 52.22% | 7.35% | 2.92% | 0.91% | Long Shot |
| Cobleskill- 8 | 47.78% | 6.15% | 2.32% | 0.68% | Long Shot |
| Scotia- 11 | 31.98% | 5.84% | 1.46% | 0.23% | Long Shot |
| Broadalbin-Perth- 12 | 27.83% | 8.25% | 1.02% | 0.22% | Long Shot |
| Cohoes- 13 | 14.26% | 3.19% | 0.22% | 0.03% | Long Shot |
A few questions based on the numbers:
Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?
Yes, Hudson. Shawn Briscoe's squad is led by Keith Robinson who has tallied over 2000 points in his career and has a team around him that have identified their roles and play them well. The Bluehawks are currently riding an eight game winning streak.
Glens Falls is a coming off their 2nd straight state title and have been impressive despite large personnel losses. They are 18-2 with their only two losses to Class AA #1 seed Amsterdam. Brady Girard is a sharpshooter and he's helped out by Jeffery Woodell, Jordan Baker, Ralph Maldonado and Jake Burns.
Coach Eric Loudis at Lansingburgh has his team at 15-5 and a potential matchup with Glens Falls later in the tournament would be interesting.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below the top contenders that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?
It's going to be tough to knock off but Hudson but there are a few teams that are capable winning a couple of games and getting to Glens Falls. Watervliet, Averill Park, Hudson Falls and Ravena. Cobleskill is hot right now winners of 7 in a row.
Additional thoughts:
-
Schalmont (52.22%) vs Cobleskill (47.78%)
-
Ravena (51.78%) vs Gloversville (48.22%)
Both matchups essentially toss-ups.
🏀 Class A Boys — Model Snapshot
🔥 At a Glance
-
Top Title Chances:
Hudson (48.38%)
Lansingburgh (18.03%)
Glens Falls (14.72%) -
🎢 Chaos Index (Top 3 Combined): 81.13%
→ Chalk Heavy -
⚡ Dark Horse:
Averill Park (7.26%)
🎯 Model Read
Class A projects as a favorite-driven bracket.
Hudson carries nearly 48% championship equity — more than double the next closest team. Combined, the top three seeds control over 81% of the title probability, creating a very narrow championship path.
After the top tier, equity drops sharply, with only Averill Park remaining above 7%.
🚨 Upset Alert
Early-round stability is strong at the top:
-
The 8/9 and 7/10 range sits near coin-flip territory (Schalmont, Cobleskill, Gloversville, Ravena).
Any disruption is far more likely to occur in the semifinals than in the opening round.
🎯 Seed vs Model Check
-
The model strongly validates the #1 seed: Hudson is the clear favorite.
-
There is a slight reorder between seeds 2 and 3 — Lansingburgh (3 seed) carries higher title equity than Glens Falls (2 seed).
-
Beyond that, the bracket follows seed structure closely.
Minor adjustment in semifinal expectations, but overall alignment.
🏀 Bottom Line
Class A leans heavily toward chalk, with Hudson firmly in control of the title picture. Lansingburgh and Glens Falls remain viable challengers, but the numbers suggest the championship path runs through the top seed.
Click team name for season results.
| Averill Park | A |
| Broadalbin-Perth | A |
| Cobleskill | A |
| Cohoes | A |
| Glens Falls | A |
| Gloversville | A |
| Hudson | A |
| Hudson Falls | A |
| ICC | A |
| Lansingburgh | A |
| Ravena | A |
| Schalmont | A |
| Scotia | A |
| Watervliet | A |
Class B
Sectional brackets. Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings and thoughts on each classification.
Full Bracket Projections
| Class B Boys | Winning | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| Rd 16 | QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Kipp Charter- 1 | 100.00% | 87.35% | 71.19% | 57.63% | Favorite |
| Catskill- 2 | 82.28% | 58.82% | 39.80% | 14.51% | Contender |
| Tamarac- 5 | 81.14% | 56.82% | 16.81% | 9.75% | Dark Horse |
| Voorheesville- 6 | 61.44% | 38.59% | 18.57% | 4.98% | Long Shot |
| Johnstown- 3 | 75.57% | 35.85% | 14.87% | 3.25% | Long Shot |
| Schuylerville- 7 | 59.49% | 22.65% | 11.25% | 2.46% | Long Shot |
| Fonda- 4 | 66.00% | 27.10% | 5.00% | 2.15% | Long Shot |
| Greenville- 8 | 61.08% | 9.05% | 4.15% | 1.86% | Long Shot |
| Hoosick Falls- 11 | 38.56% | 20.01% | 7.47% | 1.42% | Long Shot |
| Corinth- 10 | 40.51% | 12.10% | 4.89% | 0.79% | Long Shot |
| Granville- 9 | 38.92% | 3.60% | 1.28% | 0.44% | Long Shot |
| Coxsackie-Athens- 13 | 34.00% | 9.18% | 0.94% | 0.26% | Long Shot |
| Cairo-Durham- 15 | 17.72% | 6.42% | 2.09% | 0.25% | Long Shot |
| Mechanicville- 12 | 18.86% | 6.91% | 0.63% | 0.16% | Long Shot |
| NDBG- 14 | 24.43% | 5.54% | 1.06% | 0.09% | Long Shot |
| BYE | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | Long Shot |
A few questions based on the numbers:
Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?
Yes, Kipp Charter. This first year program led by ex Green Tech coach D.J. Jones has shown to be top team in the classification. They are led by another Green Tech transfer, Indavier Barnes, who is their go-to guy.
Patrick Hernandez's Catskill squad has a win over Green Tech from earlier in the season and shouldn't be discounted.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below the top contenders that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?
#4 Fonda, #5 Tamarc, #6 Voorheesville and #7 Schuylerville could win a couple of games in this tournament.
Additional thoughts:
-
-
Schuylerville (59.49%) vs Corinth (40.51%)
Only one true close opening matchup.
-
🏀 Class B Boys — Model Snapshot
🔥 At a Glance
-
Top Title Chances:
KIPP Charter (57.63%)
Catskill (14.51%)
Tamarac (9.75%) -
🎢 Chaos Index (Top 3 Combined): 81.89%
→ Chalk Heavy -
⚡ Clear Favorite:
KIPP Charter controls over half the championship equity alone.
🎯 Model Read
Class B projects as one of the most dominant favorite brackets in the tournament.
KIPP Charter carries 57.63% championship probability — nearly four times higher than the next closest team. Combined, the top two seeds account for over 72% of title equity.
After Tamarac, the drop-off becomes steep, with no other team above 5%.
🚨 Upset Alert
Early-round stability is strong at the top:
-
Catskill (2 seed) sits at 82.28%, which is solid but not automatic.
-
The 5/6 and 3/6 range carries real volatility.
Lower-seed disruption is more likely in the quarterfinal tier than at the very top.
🎯 Seed vs Model Check
-
Seeds 2 and 5 (Catskill and Tamarac) align closely with their projected equity.
-
The 3/4/6 seeds project more evenly than their seeding might suggest.
This bracket largely follows seed order, with one dominant team controlling the title picture.
🏀 Bottom Line
Class B Boys is favorite-driven. KIPP Charter enters with overwhelming statistical control, and anything outside of a 1-seed championship would register as a major upset. The real intrigue lies in who survives the opposite half of the bracket.
Click team name for season results.
| Cairo-Durham | B |
| Catskill | B |
| Chatham | B |
| Corinth | B |
| Coxsackie-Athens | B |
| Fonda | B |
| Granville | B |
| Greenville | B |
| Hoosick Falls | B |
| Johnstown | B |
| Kipp Charter | B |
| Mechanicville | B |
| NDBG | B |
| Schuylerville | B |
| Taconic Hills | B |
| Tamarac | B |
| Voorheesville | B |
Class C
Sectional brackets. Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings and thoughts on each classification.
Full Bracket Projections
| Class C Boys | Winning | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| Rd 16 | QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Berne-Knox- 1 | 99.58% | 91.14% | 80.61% | 66.49% | Favorite |
| Saratoga Catholic- 3 | 85.00% | 53.35% | 31.77% | 9.26% | Dark Horse |
| Stillwater- 7 | 76.52% | 54.40% | 30.21% | 8.73% | Dark Horse |
| Cambridge- 4 | 71.38% | 47.27% | 9.57% | 4.65% | Long Shot |
| Greenwich- 6 | 73.56% | 35.81% | 18.96% | 4.58% | Long Shot |
| Duanesburg- 2 | 80.09% | 32.17% | 12.64% | 2.25% | Long Shot |
| Maple Hill- 8 | 73.43% | 7.93% | 3.88% | 1.49% | Long Shot |
| Fort Plain- 5 | 52.00% | 21.31% | 2.51% | 0.85% | Long Shot |
| Rensselaer- 12 | 48.00% | 18.77% | 2.05% | 0.66% | Long Shot |
| Middleburgh- 10 | 23.48% | 10.50% | 3.03% | 0.36% | Long Shot |
| Hoosic Valley- 13 | 28.62% | 12.65% | 1.15% | 0.32% | Long Shot |
| Schoharie- 11 | 26.44% | 7.08% | 2.12% | 0.23% | Long Shot |
| Loudonville Christian- 14 | 15.00% | 3.76% | 0.86% | 0.06% | Long Shot |
| Whitehall- 9 | 26.57% | 0.88% | 0.23% | 0.04% | Long Shot |
| Lake George- 15 | 19.91% | 2.92% | 0.41% | 0.02% | Long Shot |
| Waterford- 16 | 0.42% | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.00% | Long Shot |
A few questions based on the numbers:
Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?
Yes, defending NYSPHSAA Champ Berne-Knox. They are so dominant they challenged themselves to an independent schedule that have allowed them to test their talent against some of the section's and state's top teams. Andy Wright's team is led by D1 committ Shane Kirker, George Wright and Dayne Coates.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below the top contenders that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?
Anyone from the Wasaren League that doesn't have to play Berne-Knox until Glens Falls. (Saratoga Catholic, Stillwater, Greenwich and Cambridge). In my eyes and with the numbers, there's been a clear divide between the Wasaren and WAC for small school teams. Both have the Wasaren clearly better. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. That's why they play the games.
Additional thoughts:
Maple Hill face off against Whitehall. Both have won 6 games in a row.
Cambridge is hot right now winners of 7 games in a row. Middleburgh has strung together six straight wins.
Early game to watch: Fort Plain (52.00%) vs Rensselaer (48.00%)
🏀 Class C Boys — Model Snapshot
🔥 At a Glance
-
Top Title Chances:
Berne-Knox (66.49%)
Saratoga Catholic (9.26%)
Stillwater (8.73%) -
🎢 Chaos Index (Top 3 Combined): 84.48%
→ Chalk Heavy -
⚡ Clear Dominant Favorite:
Berne-Knox controls over two-thirds of championship equity.
🎯 Model Read
Class C projects as one of the most top-heavy brackets in the entire tournament.
Berne-Knox carries 66.49% championship probability — an overwhelming statistical edge. Their semifinal probability (80.61%) underscores just how steep the separation is between the #1 seed and the field.
After Berne-Knox, no team reaches double-digit title equity. Saratoga Catholic and Stillwater form a distant secondary tier, but the numbers suggest a very narrow championship path.
🚨 Upset Alert
Early-round stability is strong for the top seed:
-
Several middle-tier matchups (3/6 and 4/7 ranges) show competitive quarterfinal probabilities.
-
The real volatility lies in who survives the opposite half — not in the favorite’s path.
🎯 Seed vs Model Check
-
The model strongly validates the #1 seed — Berne-Knox is a clear favorite.
-
Seeds 3 and 7 (Saratoga Catholic and Stillwater) project stronger than #2 Duanesburg in championship equity.
-
The second seed carries only 2.25% title probability — a notable seed/projection gap.
This bracket aligns heavily at the top but shows reshuffling beneath the favorite.
🏀 Bottom Line
Class C Boys is the most dominant-favorite bracket so far. Berne-Knox enters with overwhelming statistical control, and anything outside of a #1 seed championship would qualify as a significant upset. The intrigue lies in who emerges from the opposite side — not in the overall favorite.
Click team name for season results.
| Berlin-New Lebanon | C |
| Berne-Knox | C |
| Cambridge | C |
| Canajoharie | C |
| Duanesburg | C |
| Fort Plain | C |
| Galway | C |
| Greenwich | C |
| Hadley-Luzerne | C |
| Hoosic Valley | C |
| Lake George | C |
| Loudonville Christian | C |
| Maple Hill | C |
| Mayfield | C |
| Middleburgh | C |
| OESJ | C |
| Rensselaer | C |
| Saratoga Catholic | C |
| Schoharie | C |
| Stillwater | C |
| Warrensburg | C |
| Waterford | C |
| Whitehall | C |
Class D
Sectional brackets. Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings and thoughts on each classification.
Full Bracket Projections
| Class D Boys | Winning | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| Opening Rd. | QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| North Warren- 1 | 100.00% | 82.33% | 53.82% | 30.82% | Favorite |
| Northville- 2 | 100.00% | 87.47% | 55.77% | 30.80% | Favorite |
| Fort Ann- 3 | 100.00% | 82.37% | 38.27% | 17.90% | Contender |
| Germantown- 4 | 100.00% | 75.78% | 34.81% | 16.61% | Contender |
| Hawthorne Valley- 9 | 76.50% | 16.17% | 5.74% | 1.59% | Long Shot |
| Fort Edward- 5 | 100.00% | 24.22% | 5.42% | 1.26% | Long Shot |
| Hartford- 6 | 99.99% | 17.63% | 3.04% | 0.50% | Long Shot |
| Argyle- 7 | 99.99% | 12.53% | 2.92% | 0.48% | Long Shot |
| Salem- 8 | 23.50% | 1.50% | 0.22% | 0.02% | Long Shot |
A few questions based on the numbers:
Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?
No. North Warren and Northville have slightly separated themselves from the pack but this class has some depth.
North Warren is looking to win another Class D title (they won in 2023-24) after moving up to Class C last year. James Cuyler has his team playing well winning their last 5 games.
Northville is led by Niko Sevastakis and Braydn Bovee.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below the top contenders that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?
Yes, Germantown and Fort Ann have a legit shot at winning the title.
Additional thoughts:
The top four in this group are only separated by 6 total points in the latest updated computer rankings. Don't be surprised if it's not #1 vs #2 in the final.
🏀 Class D Boys — Model Snapshot
🔥 At a Glance
-
Top Title Chances:
North Warren (30.82%)
Northville (30.80%)
Fort Ann (17.90%)
Germantown (16.61%) -
🎢 Chaos Index (Top 3 Combined): 79.52%
→ Chalk Heavy (Two-Team Race) -
⚡ Co-Favorites:
North Warren and Northville are essentially even.
🎯 Model Read
Class D projects as a two-team race at the top.
North Warren (30.82%) and Northville (30.80%) are statistically identical in championship equity. Combined, they control over 61% of the title probability, making this bracket heavily concentrated at the top.
Fort Ann and Germantown form a legitimate secondary contender tier, but there is a clear drop-off after the top four.
🚨 Upset Alert
Early-round stability is strong:
-
The 8/9 range (Salem vs Hawthorne Valley) carries significant volatility.
-
Real disruption would likely need to occur in the semifinals.
🎯 Seed vs Model Check
-
The model validates the top two seeds, but they project virtually even — a statistical coin flip at the top.
-
Seeds 3 and 4 align cleanly with their projected championship equity.
-
No lower seed carries meaningful title probability.
This bracket largely follows seed order, with intrigue centered on the top-two showdown.
🏀 Bottom Line
Class D Boys is defined by a tight two-team race, but it's not a forgone conclusion like some classes may be.
Click team name for season results.
| Argyle | D |
| Fort Ann | D |
| Fort Edward | D |
| Germantown | D |
| Hartford | D |
| Hawthorne Valley | D |
| North Warren | D |
| Northville | D |
| Salem | D |
