(Shen's Kate Milham attacking the hoop in a game earlier this season at Columbia. Photo by Ed Bemiss.)

Every tournament takes into account each team’s current ranking and their current path to the title. Teams are broken down into 4 different categories based on their overall chance to win it all according to the rankings. They are as followed:

Each team is automatically classified into four categories based on their pre-tournament odds of winning their respective bracket. Here’s the key:

>= 25% chance to win= Favorite

>= 10% & < 25% chance to win= Contender

>= 5% & < 10% chance to win= Dark Horse

< 5% chance to win= Long Shot

NEW! H.S. hoop simulation. Play a single game or sim any of this year's tournaments.

 Class AAA

Sectional brackets. Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings and thoughts on each classification.

Full Bracket Projections

Class AAA Girls	Winning	Winning	Winning	Computer
	QT. Final	Semi	Champ	Projection
Shaker- 1	100.00%	86.32%	50.58%	Favorite
Colonie- 2	99.52%	55.32%	26.54%	Favorite
Shen- 3	94.07%	44.35%	19.98%	Contender
Albany- 4	72.17%	12.01%	2.73%	Long Shot
Saratoga- 5	27.83%	1.67%	0.15%	Long Shot
Guilderland- 6	5.93%	0.32%	0.02%	Long Shot
Schenectady- 7	0.48%	0.01%	0.00%	Long Shot

 

A few questions based on the numbers:

Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?

Yes, well sort of. Shaker and Colonie project as the top two contenders but this tournament features three teams in Shaker, Colonie and Shen that are among the top Class AAA teams in the state, let alone in Section 2. Shaker is considered the favorite and have beaten both Colonie and Shenendehowa but they should get tested in the later rounds. The Blue Bison have the made the finals the last two years but have lost to their rival Colonie in both games. One of their top players, Jayla Geter, has been out with an injury but Shaker has talented players to pick up the Geter's production while she's out. They include Peyton Hoblock, Malia Jackson, Sofia and Giada Lanni. The Blue Bison currently ride a 6 game winning streak heading into the tournament.

Colonie is vying for a third consecutive championship and are led by Olivia Hoffman, Ella Trimarchi and Aliyah Pearson. Head coach Heather DiBiase just became the schools all-time wins leader and continues to find a way to win close games.

Shen has won 18 games in a row after losing to Colonie and Shaker to open the season. The Plainsmen have a talented group led by Kate Milham, Gianna Winter, Gianna Sodon, Charlotte Baroody and Mya Parker. They took Shaker to overtime in the semi-finals of last year's tournament and shouldn't be discounted.

Is there a team seeded #4 or below the top contenders that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?

Albany. Coach Decky Lawson has a younger group this season but Akarri Gaddy is a force down low and is a tough matchup.

Additional thoughts:

If things hold true to seeding you may see two of the best games in all of the tournaments if Shen plays Colonie in one Semi-Final and then the title game vs. Shaker. 

🏀 Class AAA Girls — Model Snapshot

🔥 At a Glance

• Top Title Chances:
  Shaker (50.58%)
  Colonie (26.54%)
  Shen (19.98%)

• 🎢 Chaos Index (Top 3 Combined): 97.10%
  → Extreme Chalk

• ⚡ Clear Favorite:
  Shaker controls over half of championship equity.

---

🎯 Model Read

Class AAA projects as the most top-concentrated bracket on the Girls side.

Shaker enters with 50.58% championship probability — a commanding edge, as they are the only team with a bye. Colonie (26.54%) and Shen (19.98%) form a strong secondary tier, but together the top three teams account for over 97% of title equity.

There is virtually no statistical pathway for the lower half of the bracket to capture the championship.

---

🚨 Upset Alert

Early-round volatility is minimal:

• Shaker and Colonie both project near automatic to reach the semifinals.

• The semifinal tier is where resistance begins, not before.

This bracket is structured to hold to form.

---

🎯 Seed vs Model Check

• The model strongly validates seed order at the top.

• Seeds 1, 2, and 3 align exactly with championship probability order.

• No lower seed exceeds 3% title equity.

This is one of the cleanest seed-to-model alignments so far.

---

🏀 Bottom Line

Class AAA Girls is chalk-driven and top-heavy. The championship path runs squarely through Shaker, with Colonie and Shen as the only realistic challengers. Anything outside the top three would qualify as a major upset.

Click team name for season results.

Albany	AAA
Colonie	AAA
Guilderland	AAA
Saratoga	AAA
Schenectady	AAA
Shaker	AAA
Shen	AAA

Class AA

Sectional brackets. Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings and thoughts on each classification.

Full Bracket Projections

Class AA Girls	Winning	Winning	Winning	Winning	Computer
	Rd 16	QT. Final	Semi	Champ	Projection
Columbia- 1	100.00%	81.54%	56.72%	35.93%	Favorite
Troy- 2	100.00%	72.09%	50.87%	28.16%	Favorite
Bethlehem- 4	100.00%	53.30%	20.34%	9.23%	Dark Horse
Burnt Hills- 3	100.00%	60.79%	22.66%	8.51%	Dark Horse
Mohonasen- 5	100.00%	46.70%	16.45%	6.94%	Dark Horse
Ballston Spa- 7	82.18%	26.43%	14.09%	5.34%	Dark Horse
Amsterdam- 6	80.36%	36.02%	11.75%	3.87%	Long Shot
Niskayuna- 8	54.28%	10.73%	3.95%	1.25%	Long Shot
South Glens Falls- 9	45.72%	7.73%	2.54%	0.71%	Long Shot
Queensbury- 10	17.82%	1.48%	0.30%	0.04%	Long Shot
Catholic Cent.- 11	19.64%	3.19%	0.32%	0.03%	Long Shot

 

A few questions based on the numbers:

Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?

Two. Columbia and Troy have separated themselves as top contenders. Columbia beat Troy 65-39 earlier in the season. The Blue Devils are led by Sarah Rainville who averages over 24 points per game. They are a small team but they turn defense into offense and are very athletic. Troy features two Freshman, Amaya Harris and Kiana Tiernan, who lead the charge for the Flying Horses. Troy has won 13 games in a row heading into the tournament and I have to believe getting sectional experience last year with such a young team has to help them better prepare for this year's tournament. 

Is there a team seeded #4 or below the top contenders that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?

Yes. Bethlehem, Burnt Hills, Mohonasen and Ballston Spa.

Additional thoughts:

Games to watch early: --- the 8/9 game between Niskayuna (54.28%) vs South Glens Falls (45.72%)

🏀 Class AA Girls — Model Snapshot

🔥 At a Glance

• Top Title Chances:
  Columbia (35.93%)
  Troy (28.16%)

• 🎢 Chaos Index (Top 3 Combined): 73.32%
  → Lean Chalk

• ⚡ Deep Secondary Tier:
  Bethlehem (9.23%)
  Burnt Hills (8.51%)
  Mohonasen (6.94%)
  Ballston Spa (5.34%)

---

🎯 Model Read

Class AA projects as a two-team race at the top, with Columbia and Troy combining for over 64% of championship equity.

Unlike AAA, however, the secondary tier carries meaningful semifinal equity. Bethlehem and Burnt Hills both project above 20% to reach the final four, creating legitimate resistance before the championship game.

The bracket leans chalk, but not overwhelmingly so.

---

🚨 Upset Alert

The 6–8 seed range shows tighter margins:

• Ballston Spa (82.18%)

• Amsterdam (80.36%)

• Niskayuna (54.28%)

Quarterfinal reshuffling is more plausible than early-round chaos.

---

🎯 Seed vs Model Check

• The model validates the top two seeds — Columbia and Troy sit clearly above the field.

• Seeds 3 through 6 cluster closely in championship equity, suggesting competitive quarterfinals.

• No lower seed projects above 4% title probability.

This bracket follows seed structure at the top but shows depth in the middle tier.

---

🏀 Bottom Line

Class AA Girls leans toward a Columbia–Troy championship path, but the secondary tier is strong enough to influence semifinal outcomes. Expect stability early, with the real tension building in the final four.

Click team name for season results.

Amsterdam	AA
Ballston Spa	AA
Bethlehem	AA
Burnt Hills	AA
Catholic Cent.	AA
Columbia	AA
Mohonasen	AA
Niskayuna	AA
Queensbury	AA
South Glens Falls	AA
Troy	AA

 Class A

Sectional brackets. Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings and thoughts on each classification.

Full Bracket Projections

Class A Girls	Winning	Winning	Winning	Winning	Computer
	Rd 16	QT. Final	Semi	Champ	Projection
Albany Academy- 1	100.00%	89.44%	74.34%	58.95%	Favorite
Glens Falls- 2	100.00%	78.48%	49.68%	17.27%	Contender
Holy Names- 3	91.63%	62.57%	30.89%	9.00%	Dark Horse
Averill Park- 4	83.59%	54.11%	13.87%	7.07%	Dark Horse
Schalmont- 5	75.00%	35.17%	6.82%	2.88%	Long Shot
Scotia- 6	65.92%	26.73%	9.77%	1.91%	Long Shot
Broadalbin-Perth- 8	54.02%	6.16%	2.57%	0.93%	Long Shot
ICC- 7	60.62%	14.87%	5.54%	0.87%	Long Shot
Ravena- 9	45.98%	4.40%	1.67%	0.55%	Long Shot
Watervliet- 11	34.08%	9.11%	2.12%	0.24%	Long Shot
Cobleskill- 10	39.38%	6.65%	1.86%	0.20%	Long Shot
Hudson Falls- 12	25.00%	5.99%	0.43%	0.09%	Long Shot
Cohoes- 13	16.41%	4.73%	0.30%	0.05%	Long Shot
Lansingburgh- 14	8.37%	1.59%	0.15%	0.01%	Long Shot

  

A few questions based on the numbers:

Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?

Yes. Albany Academy is looking to secure their fourth straight sectional title and are a heavy favorite to do so. Alex Leonard and Morgan Vien have been top players for the Bears on multiple title teams. Nayla Macon, Amia Rodriguez and Annabel Conway are other names to watch.

Is there a team seeded #4 or below the top contenders that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?

It doesn't look like any team beyond the top four can ultimately win this tournament but that doesn't mean a team seeded #4 or below couldn't win two games and get to the Semi-Finals.

Additional thoughts:

Ichabod Crane and Cobleskill are both riding three game winning streaks and face off in an opening round tilt. Should be a good one.

🏀 Class A Girls — Model Snapshot

🔥 At a Glance

• Top Title Chances:
  Albany Academy (58.95%)
  Glens Falls (17.27%)
  Holy Names (9.00%)

• 🎢 Chaos Index (Top 3 Combined): 85.22%
  → Chalk Heavy

• ⚡ Clear Favorite:
  Albany Academy controls nearly 60% of championship equity.

---

🎯 Model Read

Class A Girls projects as a dominant-favorite bracket.

Albany Academy carries 58.95% championship probability — a commanding edge over the field. Combined with Glens Falls, the top two seeds control over 76% of title equity, narrowing the realistic championship path.

After the top three, championship probability drops sharply, with no team above 7%.

---

🚨 Upset Alert

Early-round stability is strong:

• The 3/6 and 4/5 ranges carry moderate volatility.

• Any disruption is far more likely in the semifinal tier than in the opening round.

---

🎯 Seed vs Model Check

• The model strongly validates the #1 seed — Albany Academy is the clear favorite.

• Seeds 2 and 3 align with championship equity order.

• No lower seed exceeds 3% title probability.

This bracket holds cleanly to seed structure.

---

🏀 Bottom Line

Class A Girls is favorite-driven, with Albany Academy firmly in control of the title picture. Glens Falls remains the primary challenger, but the numbers suggest the championship path runs squarely through the top seed.

Click team name for season results.

Albany Academy	A
Averill Park	A
Broadalbin-Perth	A
Cobleskill	A
Cohoes	A
Emma Willard	A
Glens Falls	A
Gloversville	A
Holy Names	A
Hudson	A
Hudson Falls	A
ICC	A
Lansingburgh	A
Ravena	A
Schalmont	A
Scotia	A

 Class B

Sectional brackets. Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings and thoughts on each classification.

Full Bracket Projections

Class B Girls	Winning	Winning	Winning	Winning	Computer
	Rd 16	QT. Final	Semi	Champ	Projection
Mechanicville- 1	100.00%	82.34%	54.82%	34.14%	Favorite
Coxsackie-Athens- 2	100.00%	77.34%	44.15%	22.06%	Contender
Voorheesville- 4	89.32%	57.90%	26.03%	13.35%	Contender
Corinth- 3	87.46%	51.63%	27.25%	12.72%	Contender
Catskill- 6	79.50%	41.10%	20.44%	8.92%	Dark Horse
La Salle- 5	72.06%	32.76%	11.95%	5.05%	Dark Horse
Tamarac- 7	60.45%	15.55%	5.05%	1.34%	Long Shot
Johnstown- 8	52.56%	9.70%	3.19%	0.91%	Long Shot
Granville- 9	47.44%	7.96%	2.45%	0.65%	Long Shot
Greenville- 10	39.55%	7.10%	1.70%	0.32%	Long Shot
Schuylerville- 12	27.94%	7.15%	1.34%	0.30%	Long Shot
Hoosick Falls- 11	20.50%	4.82%	1.04%	0.18%	Long Shot
Rensselaer- 14	12.54%	2.46%	0.38%	0.04%	Long Shot
Fonda- 13	10.68%	2.20%	0.22%	0.03%	Long Shot

 

A few questions based on the numbers:

Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?

Yes, #1 seed Mechanicville. The Red Raiders finished the season at 17-3 and own an impressive win over Stillwater, one of top small school teams in the area. Tanner Eiseman, and Molly DiSiena lead the team in scoring but are helped by Elle Richardson, Olivia Dowd and Madison Couser.

Is there a team seeded #4 or below the top contenders that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?

Seeds 2-6 can make noise in this tournament. #2 Coxsackie Athens is on a 13 game winning streak and coming off a Patroon Conference title coached by Sarah Wlodarczyk. The Riverhawks are led by Baileigh Briski who is approaching 2000 career points. Regan Hellen and Cam Slater are key components as well. Corinth has a close loss earlier in the season vs. Mechanicville, Voorheesville is the defending champ in this class and are playing their best basketball of the season. La Salle knocked off Coxsackie Athens when they were fully healthy earlier in the year and are trending in that direction now. Catskill is well coached but they are a young squad.

Additional thoughts:

Early round games to keep an eye on: The 8/9 game between. Johnstown (52.56%) vs Granville (47.44%)

🏀 Class B Girls — Model Snapshot

🔥 At a Glance

• Top Title Chances:
  Mechanicville (34.14%)
  Coxsackie-Athens (22.06%)
  Voorheesville (13.35%)
  Corinth (12.72%)

• 🎢 Chaos Index (Top 3 Combined): 69.55%
  → Lean Chalk

• ⚡ Strong Top Four Tier:
  Four teams above 12% championship equity.

---

🎯 Model Read

Class B Girls projects with a clear favorite, but not an overwhelming one.

Mechanicville leads at 34.14%, yet Coxsackie-Athens sits firmly within range at 22.06%. The next two seeds, Voorheesville and Corinth, both carry double-digit title probability, creating a legitimate four-team championship tier.

Unlike the more dominant brackets, this class shows depth in the semifinal range.

---

🚨 Upset Alert

Early-round stability holds for the top two seeds.

However:

• Catskill (6 seed) projects at 8.92% championship equity.

• La Salle (5 seed) sits at 5.05%.

The 3–6 seed range could reshape the semifinal field.

---

🎯 Seed vs Model Check

• The model validates the #1 seed — Mechanicville leads clearly.

• Seeds 3 and 4 (Corinth and Voorheesville) are nearly interchangeable in title equity.

• The 5/6 seeds project closer to contenders than typical long shots.

This bracket largely follows seed order but shows compression in the middle tier.

---

🏀 Bottom Line

Class B Girls leans toward chalk at the top but carries enough depth to produce competitive semifinals. Mechanicville holds the edge, yet the four-team championship tier keeps this bracket from being predictable.

Click team name for season results.

Canajoharie	B
Catskill	B
Chatham	B
Corinth	B
Coxsackie-Athens	B
Fonda	B
Granville	B
Greenville	B
Hoosick Falls	B
Johnstown	B
La Salle	B
Mechanicville	B
Schuylerville	B
Taconic Hills	B
Tamarac	B
Voorheesville	B
Watervliet	B

Class C

Sectional brackets. Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings and thoughts on each classification.

Full Bracket Projections

Class C Girls	Winning	Winning	Winning	Winning	Computer
	Rd 16	QT. Final	Semi	Champ	Projection
Greenwich- 1	99.78%	93.19%	84.96%	59.77%	Favorite
Stillwater- 2	98.98%	86.67%	65.25%	28.70%	Favorite
Berne-Knox- 3	97.36%	74.89%	26.19%	6.92%	Dark Horse
Whitehall- 5	78.18%	49.29%	7.19%	1.95%	Long Shot
Mayfield- 4	83.71%	40.48%	4.39%	0.93%	Long Shot
Maple Hill- 7	79.61%	12.42%	4.69%	0.68%	Long Shot
Lake George- 6	62.65%	17.72%	2.99%	0.37%	Long Shot
OESJ- 9	50.00%	3.40%	1.54%	0.29%	Long Shot
Galway- 8	50.00%	3.40%	1.54%	0.29%	Long Shot
Hoosic Valley- 11	37.35%	7.07%	0.75%	0.06%	Long Shot
Waterford- 12	21.82%	7.52%	0.32%	0.03%	Long Shot
Warrensburg- 10	20.39%	0.76%	0.10%	0.00%	Long Shot
Cambridge- 13	16.29%	2.71%	0.05%	0.00%	Long Shot
NDBG- 15	1.02%	0.15%	0.01%	0.00%	Long Shot
Schoharie- 14	2.64%	0.32%	0.01%	0.00%	Long Shot
Kipp Charter- 16	0.22%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%	Long Shot

A few questions based on the numbers:

Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?

Yes. Greenwich and Stillwater. They met in last year's title game with Stillwater winning its first ever title and advancing to the State Title game. These two faced off twice already this season and they split. Looks like a collision course for round three if the seeds hold true to form. Stillwater is currently on a 10 game winning streak and Greenwich has won 5 in a row. Names to keep and eye on for the two teams. Greenwich: Brooke Kuzmich, Bailee and Jordan Wolfe. Stillwater: Addison Thornton, Maddie Chatt and Andie Luskin.

Is there a team seeded #4 or below the top contenders that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?

Berne Knox, Whitehall and Mayfield have had outstanding seasons up to this point and are in-line to take on the two favorites in the final four. BKW is led by Molly Shaver and Olivia Kirker in scoring. Whitehall is currently on an impressive 13 game winning streak for Coach Boyd Hunt. Mayfield has Brianna Iannuzzi and Abigal Powers as their star power.

Additional thoughts:

The 8/9 game between OESJ (50.00%) vs Galway (50.00%) should be a fun watch.

🏀 Class C Girls — Model Snapshot

🔥 At a Glance

• Top Title Chances:
  Greenwich (59.77%)
  Stillwater (28.70%)
  Berne-Knox (6.92%)

• 🎢 Chaos Index (Top 3 Combined): 95.39%
  → Extreme Chalk

• ⚡ Two-Team Separation:
  Greenwich and Stillwater combine for nearly 88% of title equity.

---

🎯 Model Read

Class C Girls projects as one of the most top-heavy brackets on the board.

Greenwich carries 59.77% championship probability — a dominant position. Stillwater sits clearly second at 28.70%, and together the top two control nearly 88% of the title picture.

After that, the drop-off is steep. No other team exceeds 7% championship equity.

---

🚨 Upset Alert

Early-round stability is overwhelming:

• The top three seeds all project above 97% in Round of 16.

• Most volatility is confined to lower-tier placement games, not the championship path.

The semifinal round is likely where the bracket tightens — not before.

---

🎯 Seed vs Model Check

• The model strongly validates the top two seeds.

• No lower seed carries meaningful championship equity.

This bracket aligns tightly with seeding.

---

🏀 Bottom Line

Class C Girls is defined by a dominant two-team race. Greenwich enters with clear control, while Stillwater remains the only realistic challenger. The championship path is narrow and heavily concentrated at the top. Any team other than these two in the final would be considered a huge upset.

 

Click team name for season results.

Berlin-New Lebanon	C
Berne-Knox	C
Cambridge	C
Galway	C
Greenwich	C
Hadley-Luzerne	C
Hoosic Valley	C
Kipp Charter	C
Lake George	C
Maple Hill	C
Mayfield	C
Middleburgh	C
NDBG	C
OESJ	C
Rensselaer	C
Schoharie	C
Stillwater	C
Warrensburg	C
Waterford	C
Whitehall	C

 Class D

Sectional brackets. Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings and thoughts on each classification.

Full Bracket Projections

Class D Girls	Winning	Winning	Winning	Computer
	QT. Final	Semi	Champ	Projection
Northville- 1	94.48%	69.71%	40.83%	Favorite
Saratoga Catholic- 2	88.10%	55.10%	29.72%	Favorite
Hartford- 3	80.14%	38.35%	18.10%	Contender
Argyle- 4	50.02%	14.69%	5.06%	Dark Horse
Duanesburg- 5	49.98%	14.67%	5.05%	Dark Horse
Mekeel C.A.- 6	19.86%	4.00%	0.77%	Long Shot
Salem- 7	11.90%	2.54%	0.39%	Long Shot
Germantown- 8	5.52%	0.93%	0.09%	Long Shot

 

A few questions based on the numbers:

Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?

No. Northville and Saratoga Catholic share the favorite nod in this bracket. Northville is paced by Izzy Colon, Leah Valovic and Keira Mackey. The Saints of Spa Catholic have a strong 1-2 punch of Sophia Ryan and Addison Whitbeck.

Is there a team seeded #4 or below the top contenders that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?

The #3-5 seeds of Hartford, Argyle and Duanesburg loom right behind the top two.

Additional thoughts:

Early game to watch. Argyle (50.02%) vs Duanesburg (49.98%).

 

🏀 Class D Girls — Model Snapshot

🔥 At a Glance

• Top Title Chances:
  Northville (40.83%)
  Saratoga Catholic (29.72%)
  Hartford (18.10%)

• 🎢 Chaos Index (Top 3 Combined): 88.65%
  → Chalk Heavy

• ⚡ Clear Top Tier:
  Three teams control nearly 89% of championship equity.

---

🎯 Model Read

Class D Girls projects as a concentrated bracket at the top.

Northville leads at 40.83%, with Saratoga Catholic firmly in range at 29.72%. Together, the top two seeds account for over 70% of the title probability.

Hartford forms a legitimate secondary challenger tier at 18.10%, while equity drops sharply beyond the top three.

---

🚨 Upset Alert

Early-round stability favors the top seeds:

• Northville and Saratoga Catholic project strongly into the semifinals.

• The 4/5 matchup (Argyle vs Duanesburg) is essentially even, but neither projects as a significant title threat.

Any meaningful disruption would likely need to occur in the semifinal round.

---

🎯 Seed vs Model Check

• The model validates the top two seeds cleanly.

• Hartford (3 seed) holds clear separation over the 4/5 tier.

• No lower seed exceeds 5% championship probability.

This bracket aligns strongly with seed structure.

---

🏀 Bottom Line

Class D Girls is top-driven, with Northville holding the statistical edge and Saratoga Catholic as the primary challenger. The championship path narrows quickly after the top tier, making semifinal matchups critical.

 

Click team name for season results.

Argyle	D
Duanesburg	D
Fort Edward	D
Germantown	D
Hartford	D
Mekeel C.A.	D
North Warren	D
Northville	D
Salem	D
Saratoga Catholic	D

 

 Full game videos from Section 2 basketball action.

Here are some links to complete game videos from games covered over the past few seasons. The links can be shared with players and fans. The recap, if there was one completed for that game, is listed below the game video link so you can gain some context from the video. That will help out especially with the older videos that don't have the score overlay visible. Keep in mind the videos may not be perfectly filmed as normally I'm doing live scoring (entering each basket on a tablet), along with filming game action, and at the same time posting updates to social media. Enjoy!

 

Girls: Guilderland vs Colonie 2/20/21

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Duanesburg vs Maple Hill 2/19/21

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Averill Park vs Niskauna 2/13/21

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Maple Hill vs Cambridge 3/7/20

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Niskayuna vs Shenendehowa 3/3/30

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Colonie vs Green Tech 3/3/20

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Fort Plain vs Waterford 3/3/20

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Hoosick Falls vs Mechanicville 3/2/20

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Glens Falls vs Schalmont 3/2/20

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Rensselaer vs Lake George 3/2/20

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Hudson Falls vs Lansingburgh 3/1/20

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Queensbury vs Gloversville 3/1/20

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Saratoga vs Colonie 2/29/20

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Niskayuna vs Bethlehem 2/29/20

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Berne Knox vs Fort Plain 2/29/20

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Waterford vs Granville 2/29/20

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Hudson vs Maple Hill 2/14/20

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Troy vs Averill Park 2/13/20

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Saratoga vs Shenendehowa 2/11/20

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Cobleskill vs Ravena 2/8/20

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Saratoga vs Averill Park 2/4/20

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Shenendehowa vs Maine Endwell 2/1/20

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Mechanicville vs Schoharie 2/1/20

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Northville vs Fort Ann 2/1/20

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Schalmont vs LaSalle 1/31/20

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Catskill vs Hudson 1/26/20 (First half video only)

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Fonda vs Bishop Gibbons 1/29/20

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Maple Hill vs Coxsackie 1/26/20

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Cobleskill vs Schalmont 1/24/20

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Averill Park vs Shenendehowa 1/14/20

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Berne Knox vs Duanesburg 1/10/20

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Troy vs Guilderland 1/7/20

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Niskayuna vs Mohonasen 12/27/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Catskill vs Mekeel Christian 12/27/19

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Hoosick Falls vs Mohonasen 12/27/19

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Burnt Hills vs Mekeel Christian 12/27/19

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: New Hartford vs Amsterdam 12/27/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Columbia vs Averill Park 12/21/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Mekeel Christian vs Green Tech 12/10/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Mohonasen vs Ichabod Crane 12/6/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Watervliet vs Catholic Central 11/30/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Bishop Maginn vs Lansingburgh 11/30/19

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Albany vs Shaker 11/29/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Albany Academy vs FDA 3/24/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Glens Falls vs Cardinal O'Hara 3/24/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Albany Academy vs Park School 3/23/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Glens Falls vs South Bronx Prep 3/23/19

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Cambridge vs Watkins Glen 3/16/19

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Cambridge vs Maple Grove 3/15/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Glens Falls vs Olean 3/15/19

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Westport vs Bishop Gibbons 3/9/19

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Averill Park vs Jamesville-DeWitt 3/5/19

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Saratoga vs Shenendehowa 3/2/19

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Queensbury vs Averill Park 3/2/19

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Fonda vs Mechanicville 3/2/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Schalmont vs Glens Falls 3/1/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Lake George vs Hoosick Falls 3/1/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Mekeel Christian vs Troy 2/28/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Mohonasen vs Gloversville 2/28/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Fort Ann vs Germantown 2/28/19

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Holy Names vs Averill Park 2/27/19

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Amsterdam vs Queensbury 2/27/19

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Hoosick Falls vs Maple Hill 2/26/19

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Cambridge vs Warrensburg 2/26/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Watervliet vs Glens Falls 2/25/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Mayfield vs Lake George 2/25/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Gloversville vs Ballston Spa 2/24/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Mohonasen vs Averill Park 2/24/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Lansingburgh vs Mekeel Christian 2/24/19 (end of 1H and 2H.)

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: CBA vs Green Tech 2/23/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Canajoharie vs Hoosick Falls 2/23/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Granville vs Maple Hill 2/23/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Mayfield vs Chatham 2/22/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Fonda vs Catskill 2/22/19

GAME RECAP

  

Girls: Gloversville vs Holy Names 2/21/19

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Lake George vs Maple Hill 2/20/19

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Cobleskill vs Ichabod Crane 2/16/19

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Saratoga vs Colonie 2/5/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Glens Falls vs Amsterdam 1/27/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Lake George vs Hoosick Falls 1/27/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Green Tech vs Shenendehowa 1/27/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Park School vs Albany Academy 1/27/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Cohoes vs Stillwater 1/27/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: OESJ vs Hoosic Valley 1/27/19

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Cambridge vs Mechanicville 1/26/19

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Colonie vs Albany 1/25/19

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Watervliet vs Albany Academy 1/25/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Watervliet vs Mekeel Christian 1/19/19

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Albany vs Shenendehowa 1/18/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Catskill vs Maple Hill 1/16/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: La Salle vs Watervliet 1/15/19

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Shaker vs Guilderland 1/11/19

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Hudson vs Maple Hill 1/8/19

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Tamarac vs Voorheesville 12/28/18

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Saugerties vs Burnt Hills 12/27/18

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Queensbury vs Averill Park 12/27/18

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Hudson Falls vs Schalmont 12/27/18

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Colonie vs Averill Park 12/18/18

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Chatham vs Ichabod Crane 12/15/18

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Shenendehowa vs Bethlehem 12/11/18

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Voorheesville vs Albany Academy 12/11/18

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Mohonasen vs Schalmont 12/7/18

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Hoosick Falls vs Schenectady 12/5/18

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Ballston Spa vs Averill Park 11/30/18

GAME RECAP

 

Girls: Hudson vs Maple Hill 11/28/18

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Green Tech vs Bishop Gibbons 11/27/18

GAME RECAP

 

Boys: Chatham vs New Lebanon 11/20/18

GAME RECAP

(Brady Olsen of Niskayuna looks to lead his team to a Class AA three-peat. Photo by Ed Bemiss.)

 

 2025-26 brackets are from Section2atlethics.org.

Every tournament takes into account each team’s current ranking and their current path to the title. Teams are broken down into 4 different categories based on their overall chance to win it all according to the rankings. They are as followed:

Each team is automatically classified into four categories based on their pre-tournament odds of winning their respective bracket. Here’s the key:

>= 25% chance to win= Favorite

>= 10% & < 25% chance to win= Contender

>= 5% & < 10% chance to win= Dark Horse

< 5% chance to win= Long Shot

NEW! H.S. hoop simulation. Play a single game or sim any of this year's tournaments.

 Class AAA

Sectional brackets. Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings and thoughts on each classification.

Full Bracket Projections

Class AAA Boys	Winning	Winning	Winning	Winning	Computer
	Opening Rd.	QT. Final	Semi	Champ	Projection
CBA- 1	100.00%	85.84%	68.59%	47.82%	Favorite
Shaker- 2	100.00%	83.25%	52.76%	24.47%	Contender
Shen-3	100.00%	66.89%	32.01%	12.49%	Contender
Green Tech-4	100.00%	64.76%	18.99%	8.13%	Dark Horse
Albany-6	100.00%	33.11%	10.65%	2.65%	Long Shot
Colonie-5	100.00%	35.24%	6.57%	1.92%	Long Shot
Guilderland-9	51.02%	7.37%	3.08%	0.94%	Long Shot
Saratoga-8	48.98%	6.79%	2.77%	0.82%	Long Shot
Schenectady-7	100.00%	16.75%	4.58%	0.76%	Long Shot

 

A few questions based on the numbers:

Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?

Yes. CBA is 19-0 on the season. The Brothers have held off all challengers up to this point led by their stifling defense and clutch play in tight games. J.J. Osinski is their leading scorer but they are a deep tough team. Austin Osinski, Jack Hulett, Pop Coffil and Jason Vogel among the great supporting cast.

Shaker is the defending section and NY State champ and if they are healthy the most likely team to give CBA a test. Bless Demand, Melvin Brown and Marcelin Mukendi lead the Blue Bison.

Is there a team seeded #4 or below the top contenders that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?

#4 Green Tech is interesting. They are playing well under head Coach Will Brown. They suffocate you on defense and turn that into quick easy hoops. If they can shoot it better in the half court they could suprise one of the top teams. Most likely a year away from truly contending. Shen is an enigma. The last two years they have had great starts to the season but didn't finish well. In fact it's been five years since Shen has made it out of the quarter-final round and advanced to Glens Falls. They've lost their last two games, to finish this season, but still ended with a glossy 16-4 record. I like their team toughness this year but they will be tested by an athletic Albany team in the round of 8.

Additional thoughts:

The opening round game between Guilderland (51.02%) vs Saratoga (48.98%) should be a fun watch.

 

🏀 Class AAA Boys — Model Snapshot

🔥 At a Glance

• Top Title Chances:
  CBA (47.82%)
  Shaker (24.47%)
  Shen (12.49%)

• 🎢 Chaos Index (Top 3 Combined): 84.78%
  → Chalk Heavy

• ⚡ Only One Real Dark Horse:
  Green Tech (8.13%)

---

🎯 Model Read

Class AAA projects as one of the most top-heavy brackets in Section 2.

CBA alone carries nearly 48% championship equity — almost double the next closest team. Combined, the top two seeds (CBA + Shaker) control over 72% of the title probability.

After Shen, the drop-off becomes steep. The model suggests a very narrow championship path centered around the top tier.

---

🚨 Upset Alert

Early-round volatility is minimal:

• ToGuilderland (9) vs. Saratoga (8) is essentially a coin flip (51% / 49%).

Real disruption would most likely occur in the semifinals — not before.

---

🎯 Seed vs Model Check

• The model strongly validates the #1 seed: CBA is the clear favorite at 47.82%.

• The top three seeds align perfectly with championship probability order.

• No lower seed carries meaningful title equity beyond Green Tech (4 seed, 8.13%).

This bracket projects very cleanly by seed.

---

🏀 Bottom Line

Class AAA Boys is chalk-driven. The model heavily favors CBA, with Shaker as the primary challenger. Anything outside of a 1 vs 2 or 1 vs 3 championship path would register as a significant statistical surprise.

Click team name for season results.

Albany	AAA
CBA	AAA
Colonie	AAA
Green Tech	AAA
Guilderland	AAA
Saratoga	AAA
Schenectady	AAA
Shaker	AAA
Shen	AAA

 Class AA

Sectional brackets. Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings and thoughts on each classification.

Full Bracket Projections

Class AA Boys	Winning	Winning	Winning	Winning	Computer
	Rd 16	QT. Final	Semi	Champ	Projection
Niskayuna- 2	100.00%	80.12%	52.24%	31.38%	Favorite
Amsterdam- 1	100.00%	73.14%	42.58%	22.92%	Contender
Columbia- 3	100.00%	64.28%	28.80%	13.98%	Contender
Bethlehem- 4	100.00%	54.90%	27.61%	13.24%	Contender
Troy- 5	100.00%	45.10%	20.55%	8.89%	Dark Horse
La Salle- 6	81.68%	33.37%	12.14%	4.80%	Long Shot
Burnt Hills- 9	57.22%	16.82%	6.21%	2.08%	Long Shot
Mohonasen- 7	51.34%	10.44%	3.50%	1.01%	Long Shot
Ballston Spa- 10	48.66%	9.44%	3.05%	0.84%	Long Shot
Queensbury- 8	42.78%	10.04%	3.04%	0.83%	Long Shot
South Glens Falls- 11	18.32%	2.35%	0.27%	0.03%	Long Shot

 

 A few questions based on the numbers:

Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?

No. Amsterdam is the #1 seed but two time defending sectional champ Niskayuna rates as the best chance to cut the nets down. Amsterdam has won 11 games in a row and just knocked of AAA power Shen in a non-league contest on Sunday. Aundray Fowler, Rocco Natale and C.J. Miller lead the Rams attack. Niskayuna is paced by Brady Olsen, Will DiCaprio, Jake McDonald and Poem Staten.

Is there a team seeded #4 or below the top contenders that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?

Seeds #3-5. (Columbia, Bethlehem and Troy) can cause some trouble for the top teams. Bethlehem is down all-area player Kiernan Barnes but they found a way to win a game vs. Shaker without him, so they can still scrap and claw on any night. Troy was in the Class AA Final last year. Kieren Poissant and Ander Mocerine are players to watch for Columbia.

Additional thoughts:

• Mohonasen (51.34%) vs Ballston Spa (48.66%)

• Burnt Hills (57.22%) vs Queensbury (42.78%)

7/10 and 8/9 range both competitive.

🏀 Class AA Boys — Model Snapshot

🔥 At a Glance

• Top Title Chances:
  Niskayuna (31.38%)
  Amsterdam (22.92%)
  Columbia (13.98%)
  Bethlehem (13.24%)

• 🎢 Chaos Index (Top 3 Combined): 68.28%
  → Lean Chalk

• ⚡ Dark Horse:
  Troy (8.89%)

---

🎯 Model Read

Class AA projects with a clear top tier, but not the dominance seen in AAA.

Niskayuna leads at 31.38%, with Amsterdam firmly in the mix at 22.92%. Combined, the top two seeds control just over 54% of championship equity, leaving room for disruption — but still favoring chalk.

Columbia and Bethlehem sit in a tight secondary contender tier, while Troy profiles as the most viable lower-seed threat.

---

🚨 Upset Alert

Early-round volatility is limited at the top — the top five seeds all project at 100% to win their opening game.

However, the 7–10 seed range tightens considerably:

• Mohonasen (51.34%)

• Burnt Hills (57.22%)

• Ballston Spa (48.66%)

• Queensbury (42.78%)

Those matchups project far less stable.

---

🎯 Seed vs Model Check

• The model slightly favors #2 Niskayuna over #1 Amsterdam in championship probability (31.38% vs 22.92%).

• Seeds 3 and 4 (Columbia and Bethlehem) align closely with projection order.

• No lower seed outside Troy carries significant title equity.

This bracket mostly follows seed structure, with only a subtle edge shift at the top.

---

🏀 Bottom Line

Class AA leans toward chalk, but not overwhelmingly so. Niskayuna and Amsterdam control the title picture, yet the secondary contender tier remains strong enough to shape semifinal outcomes. Expect stability early, with the most likely movement coming in the final four.

 

Click team name for season results.

Amsterdam	AA
Ballston Spa	AA
Bethlehem	AA
Burnt Hills	AA
Columbia	AA
La Salle	AA
Mohonasen	AA
Niskayuna	AA
Queensbury	AA
South Glens Falls	AA
Troy	AA

 Class A

Sectional brackets. Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings and thoughts on each classification.

Full Bracket Projections

Class A Boys	Winning	Winning	Winning	Winning	Computer
	Rd 16	QT. Final	Semi	Champ	Projection
Hudson- 1	100.00%	86.51%	67.93%	48.38%	Favorite
Lansingburgh- 3	100.00%	71.67%	41.74%	18.03%	Contender
Glens Falls- 2	100.00%	67.86%	36.07%	14.72%	Contender
Averill Park- 4	85.74%	52.07%	15.86%	7.26%	Dark Horse
Watervliet- 5	72.17%	36.49%	9.73%	4.00%	Long Shot
Hudson Falls- 6	68.02%	22.50%	9.29%	2.63%	Long Shot
Ravena- 7	51.78%	17.04%	6.20%	1.62%	Long Shot
Gloversville- 10	48.22%	15.10%	5.25%	1.30%	Long Shot
Schalmont- 9	52.22%	7.35%	2.92%	0.91%	Long Shot
Cobleskill- 8	47.78%	6.15%	2.32%	0.68%	Long Shot
Scotia- 11	31.98%	5.84%	1.46%	0.23%	Long Shot
Broadalbin-Perth- 12	27.83%	8.25%	1.02%	0.22%	Long Shot
Cohoes- 13	14.26%	3.19%	0.22%	0.03%	Long Shot

 

A few questions based on the numbers:

Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?

Yes, Hudson. Shawn Briscoe's squad is led by Keith Robinson who has tallied over 2000 points in his career and has a team around him that have identified their roles and play them well. The Bluehawks are currently riding an eight game winning streak.

Glens Falls is a coming off their 2nd straight state title and have been impressive despite large personnel losses. They are 18-2 with their only two losses to Class AA #1 seed Amsterdam. Brady Girard is a sharpshooter and he's helped out by Jeffery Woodell, Jordan Baker, Ralph Maldonado and Jake Burns.

Coach Eric Loudis at Lansingburgh has his team at 15-5 and a potential matchup with Glens Falls later in the tournament would be interesting.

Is there a team seeded #4 or below the top contenders that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?

It's going to be tough to knock off but Hudson but there are a few teams that are capable winning a couple of games and getting to Glens Falls. Watervliet, Averill Park, Hudson Falls and Ravena. Cobleskill is hot right now winners of 7 in a row.

Additional thoughts:

• Schalmont (52.22%) vs Cobleskill (47.78%)

• Ravena (51.78%) vs Gloversville (48.22%)

Both matchups essentially toss-ups.

🏀 Class A Boys — Model Snapshot

🔥 At a Glance

• Top Title Chances:
  Hudson (48.38%)
  Lansingburgh (18.03%)
  Glens Falls (14.72%)

• 🎢 Chaos Index (Top 3 Combined): 81.13%
  → Chalk Heavy

• ⚡ Dark Horse:
  Averill Park (7.26%)

---

🎯 Model Read

Class A projects as a favorite-driven bracket.

Hudson carries nearly 48% championship equity — more than double the next closest team. Combined, the top three seeds control over 81% of the title probability, creating a very narrow championship path.

After the top tier, equity drops sharply, with only Averill Park remaining above 7%.

---

🚨 Upset Alert

Early-round stability is strong at the top:

• The 8/9 and 7/10 range sits near coin-flip territory (Schalmont, Cobleskill, Gloversville, Ravena).

Any disruption is far more likely to occur in the semifinals than in the opening round.

---

🎯 Seed vs Model Check

• The model strongly validates the #1 seed: Hudson is the clear favorite.

• There is a slight reorder between seeds 2 and 3 — Lansingburgh (3 seed) carries higher title equity than Glens Falls (2 seed).

• Beyond that, the bracket follows seed structure closely.

Minor adjustment in semifinal expectations, but overall alignment.

---

🏀 Bottom Line

Class A leans heavily toward chalk, with Hudson firmly in control of the title picture. Lansingburgh and Glens Falls remain viable challengers, but the numbers suggest the championship path runs through the top seed.

 

Click team name for season results.

Averill Park	A
Broadalbin-Perth	A
Cobleskill	A
Cohoes	A
Glens Falls	A
Gloversville	A
Hudson	A
Hudson Falls	A
ICC	A
Lansingburgh	A
Ravena	A
Schalmont	A
Scotia	A
Watervliet	A

 Class B

Sectional brackets. Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings and thoughts on each classification.

Full Bracket Projections

Class B Boys	Winning	Winning	Winning	Winning	Computer
	Rd 16	QT. Final	Semi	Champ	Projection
Kipp Charter- 1	100.00%	87.35%	71.19%	57.63%	Favorite
Catskill- 2	82.28%	58.82%	39.80%	14.51%	Contender
Tamarac- 5	81.14%	56.82%	16.81%	9.75%	Dark Horse
Voorheesville- 6	61.44%	38.59%	18.57%	4.98%	Long Shot
Johnstown- 3	75.57%	35.85%	14.87%	3.25%	Long Shot
Schuylerville- 7	59.49%	22.65%	11.25%	2.46%	Long Shot
Fonda- 4	66.00%	27.10%	5.00%	2.15%	Long Shot
Greenville- 8	61.08%	9.05%	4.15%	1.86%	Long Shot
Hoosick Falls- 11	38.56%	20.01%	7.47%	1.42%	Long Shot
Corinth- 10	40.51%	12.10%	4.89%	0.79%	Long Shot
Granville- 9	38.92%	3.60%	1.28%	0.44%	Long Shot
Coxsackie-Athens- 13	34.00%	9.18%	0.94%	0.26%	Long Shot
Cairo-Durham- 15	17.72%	6.42%	2.09%	0.25%	Long Shot
Mechanicville- 12	18.86%	6.91%	0.63%	0.16%	Long Shot
NDBG- 14	24.43%	5.54%	1.06%	0.09%	Long Shot
BYE	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	Long Shot

 

A few questions based on the numbers:

Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?

Yes, Kipp Charter. This first year program led by ex Green Tech coach D.J. Jones has shown to be top team in the classification. They are led by another Green Tech transfer, Indavier Barnes, who is their go-to guy.

Patrick Hernandez's Catskill squad has a win over Green Tech from earlier in the season and shouldn't be discounted.

Is there a team seeded #4 or below the top contenders that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?

#4 Fonda, #5 Tamarc, #6 Voorheesville and #7 Schuylerville could win a couple of games in this tournament.

Additional thoughts:

• • Schuylerville (59.49%) vs Corinth (40.51%)

  Only one true close opening matchup.

🏀 Class B Boys — Model Snapshot

🔥 At a Glance

• Top Title Chances:
  KIPP Charter (57.63%)
  Catskill (14.51%)
  Tamarac (9.75%)

• 🎢 Chaos Index (Top 3 Combined): 81.89%
  → Chalk Heavy

• ⚡ Clear Favorite:
  KIPP Charter controls over half the championship equity alone.

---

🎯 Model Read

Class B projects as one of the most dominant favorite brackets in the tournament.

KIPP Charter carries 57.63% championship probability — nearly four times higher than the next closest team. Combined, the top two seeds account for over 72% of title equity.

After Tamarac, the drop-off becomes steep, with no other team above 5%.

---

🚨 Upset Alert

Early-round stability is strong at the top:

• Catskill (2 seed) sits at 82.28%, which is solid but not automatic.

• The 5/6 and 3/6 range carries real volatility.

Lower-seed disruption is more likely in the quarterfinal tier than at the very top.

---

🎯 Seed vs Model Check

• Seeds 2 and 5 (Catskill and Tamarac) align closely with their projected equity.

• The 3/4/6 seeds project more evenly than their seeding might suggest.

This bracket largely follows seed order, with one dominant team controlling the title picture.

---

🏀 Bottom Line

Class B Boys is favorite-driven. KIPP Charter enters with overwhelming statistical control, and anything outside of a 1-seed championship would register as a major upset. The real intrigue lies in who survives the opposite half of the bracket.

 

Click team name for season results.

Cairo-Durham	B
Catskill	B
Chatham	B
Corinth	B
Coxsackie-Athens	B
Fonda	B
Granville	B
Greenville	B
Hoosick Falls	B
Johnstown	B
Kipp Charter	B
Mechanicville	B
NDBG	B
Schuylerville	B
Taconic Hills	B
Tamarac	B
Voorheesville	B

 Class C

Sectional brackets. Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings and thoughts on each classification.

Full Bracket Projections

Class C Boys	Winning	Winning	Winning	Winning	Computer
	Rd 16	QT. Final	Semi	Champ	Projection
Berne-Knox- 1	99.58%	91.14%	80.61%	66.49%	Favorite
Saratoga Catholic- 3	85.00%	53.35%	31.77%	9.26%	Dark Horse
Stillwater- 7	76.52%	54.40%	30.21%	8.73%	Dark Horse
Cambridge- 4	71.38%	47.27%	9.57%	4.65%	Long Shot
Greenwich- 6	73.56%	35.81%	18.96%	4.58%	Long Shot
Duanesburg- 2	80.09%	32.17%	12.64%	2.25%	Long Shot
Maple Hill- 8	73.43%	7.93%	3.88%	1.49%	Long Shot
Fort Plain- 5	52.00%	21.31%	2.51%	0.85%	Long Shot
Rensselaer- 12	48.00%	18.77%	2.05%	0.66%	Long Shot
Middleburgh- 10	23.48%	10.50%	3.03%	0.36%	Long Shot
Hoosic Valley- 13	28.62%	12.65%	1.15%	0.32%	Long Shot
Schoharie- 11	26.44%	7.08%	2.12%	0.23%	Long Shot
Loudonville Christian- 14	15.00%	3.76%	0.86%	0.06%	Long Shot
Whitehall- 9	26.57%	0.88%	0.23%	0.04%	Long Shot
Lake George- 15	19.91%	2.92%	0.41%	0.02%	Long Shot
Waterford- 16	0.42%	0.05%	0.00%	0.00%	Long Shot

 

A few questions based on the numbers:

Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?

Yes, defending NYSPHSAA Champ Berne-Knox. They are so dominant they challenged themselves to an independent schedule that have allowed them to test their talent against some of the section's and state's top teams. Andy Wright's team is led by D1 committ Shane Kirker, George Wright and Dayne Coates. 

Is there a team seeded #4 or below the top contenders that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?

Anyone from the Wasaren League that doesn't have to play Berne-Knox until Glens Falls. (Saratoga Catholic, Stillwater, Greenwich and Cambridge). In my eyes and with the numbers, there's been a clear divide between the Wasaren and WAC for small school teams. Both have the Wasaren clearly better. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. That's why they play the games.

Additional thoughts:

Maple Hill face off against Whitehall. Both have won 6 games in a row.

Cambridge is hot right now winners of 7 games in a row. Middleburgh has strung together six straight wins.

Early game to watch: Fort Plain (52.00%) vs Rensselaer (48.00%)

🏀 Class C Boys — Model Snapshot

🔥 At a Glance

• Top Title Chances:
  Berne-Knox (66.49%)
  Saratoga Catholic (9.26%)
  Stillwater (8.73%)

• 🎢 Chaos Index (Top 3 Combined): 84.48%
  → Chalk Heavy

• ⚡ Clear Dominant Favorite:
  Berne-Knox controls over two-thirds of championship equity.

---

🎯 Model Read

Class C projects as one of the most top-heavy brackets in the entire tournament.

Berne-Knox carries 66.49% championship probability — an overwhelming statistical edge. Their semifinal probability (80.61%) underscores just how steep the separation is between the #1 seed and the field.

After Berne-Knox, no team reaches double-digit title equity. Saratoga Catholic and Stillwater form a distant secondary tier, but the numbers suggest a very narrow championship path.

---

🚨 Upset Alert

Early-round stability is strong for the top seed:

• Several middle-tier matchups (3/6 and 4/7 ranges) show competitive quarterfinal probabilities.

• The real volatility lies in who survives the opposite half — not in the favorite’s path.

---

🎯 Seed vs Model Check

• The model strongly validates the #1 seed — Berne-Knox is a clear favorite.

• Seeds 3 and 7 (Saratoga Catholic and Stillwater) project stronger than #2 Duanesburg in championship equity.

• The second seed carries only 2.25% title probability — a notable seed/projection gap.

This bracket aligns heavily at the top but shows reshuffling beneath the favorite.

---

🏀 Bottom Line

Class C Boys is the most dominant-favorite bracket so far. Berne-Knox enters with overwhelming statistical control, and anything outside of a #1 seed championship would qualify as a significant upset. The intrigue lies in who emerges from the opposite side — not in the overall favorite.

 

Click team name for season results.

Berlin-New Lebanon	C
Berne-Knox	C
Cambridge	C
Canajoharie	C
Duanesburg	C
Fort Plain	C
Galway	C
Greenwich	C
Hadley-Luzerne	C
Hoosic Valley	C
Lake George	C
Loudonville Christian	C
Maple Hill	C
Mayfield	C
Middleburgh	C
OESJ	C
Rensselaer	C
Saratoga Catholic	C
Schoharie	C
Stillwater	C
Warrensburg	C
Waterford	C
Whitehall	C

 Class D

Sectional brackets. Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings and thoughts on each classification.

Full Bracket Projections

Class D Boys	Winning	Winning	Winning	Winning	Computer
	Opening Rd.	QT. Final	Semi	Champ	Projection
North Warren- 1	100.00%	82.33%	53.82%	30.82%	Favorite
Northville- 2	100.00%	87.47%	55.77%	30.80%	Favorite
Fort Ann- 3	100.00%	82.37%	38.27%	17.90%	Contender
Germantown- 4	100.00%	75.78%	34.81%	16.61%	Contender
Hawthorne Valley- 9	76.50%	16.17%	5.74%	1.59%	Long Shot
Fort Edward- 5	100.00%	24.22%	5.42%	1.26%	Long Shot
Hartford- 6	99.99%	17.63%	3.04%	0.50%	Long Shot
Argyle- 7	99.99%	12.53%	2.92%	0.48%	Long Shot
Salem- 8	23.50%	1.50%	0.22%	0.02%	Long Shot

 

A few questions based on the numbers:

Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?

No. North Warren and Northville have slightly separated themselves from the pack but this class has some depth.

North Warren is looking to win another Class D title (they won in 2023-24) after moving up to Class C last year. James Cuyler has his team playing well winning their last 5 games.

Northville is led by Niko Sevastakis and Braydn Bovee.

Is there a team seeded #4 or below the top contenders that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?

Yes, Germantown and Fort Ann have a legit shot at winning the title.

Additional thoughts:

The top four in this group are only separated by 6 total points in the latest updated computer rankings. Don't be surprised if it's not #1 vs #2 in the final.

🏀 Class D Boys — Model Snapshot

🔥 At a Glance

• Top Title Chances:
  North Warren (30.82%)
  Northville (30.80%)
  Fort Ann (17.90%)
  Germantown (16.61%)

• 🎢 Chaos Index (Top 3 Combined): 79.52%
  → Chalk Heavy (Two-Team Race)

• ⚡ Co-Favorites:
  North Warren and Northville are essentially even.

---

🎯 Model Read

Class D projects as a two-team race at the top.

North Warren (30.82%) and Northville (30.80%) are statistically identical in championship equity. Combined, they control over 61% of the title probability, making this bracket heavily concentrated at the top.

Fort Ann and Germantown form a legitimate secondary contender tier, but there is a clear drop-off after the top four.

---

🚨 Upset Alert

Early-round stability is strong:

• The 8/9 range (Salem vs Hawthorne Valley) carries significant volatility.

• Real disruption would likely need to occur in the semifinals.

---

🎯 Seed vs Model Check

• The model validates the top two seeds, but they project virtually even — a statistical coin flip at the top.

• Seeds 3 and 4 align cleanly with their projected championship equity.

• No lower seed carries meaningful title probability.

This bracket largely follows seed order, with intrigue centered on the top-two showdown.

---

🏀 Bottom Line

Class D Boys is defined by a tight two-team race, but it's not a forgone conclusion like some classes may be.

 

Click team name for season results. 

Argyle	D
Fort Ann	D
Fort Edward	D
Germantown	D
Hartford	D
Hawthorne Valley	D
North Warren	D
Northville	D
Salem	D

 

 

 

(1/12/24) 

Game score projections for today's boys and girls games. Listed are each team, their league, overall record, current computer ranking, classification, projected score for tonight and chance of winning the game. Payers to watch for the games are listed on the top 150 of the timesunion.com scoring leaders.

By clicking the team name that will take you that team's schedule page. 

(Boys)

		BOYS						Top 150 per game scorer on Timesunion.com
Date	Team	League	Record	Overall	Class	Score	Win %
1/12/2024	Lake George	Adirondack League	6-4	#63	C	51	50.03%	Angelo Bergman,Jack Welch,
	Hartford	Adirondack League	5-6	#65	D	51	49.97%
1/12/2024	North Warren	Adirondack League	7-2	#55	D	49	50.04%	Derrick Tyrell,Semaj Cuyler,
	Whitehall	Adirondack League	9-2	#58	C	49	49.96%
1/12/2024	Fort Edward	Adirondack League	5-4	#60	D	47	50.05%	Zach Bartholomew,
	Granville	Adirondack League	7-3	#61	B	47	49.95%
1/12/2024	Corinth	Adirondack League	4-5	#64	B	66	89.39%	Avery Wood,
	Salem	Adirondack League	0-9	#87	C	35	10.61%	Josh Harrington,
1/12/2024	Hadley-Luzerne	Adirondack League	2-9	#66	C	57	77.04%
	Fort Ann	Adirondack League	2-7	#86	D	39	22.96%	Javier Hernandez,
1/12/2024	Argyle	Adirondack League	7-1	#56	D	51	50.01%	Brandon Saunders,Dru Austin,Shea Squires,
	Warrensburg	Adirondack League	8-4	#59	C	51	49.99%	Evan LaPell,Steve Schloss,
1/12/2024	Glens Falls	Foothills Council	11-0	#5	A	72	76.17%	Brody Holcomb,Cooper Nadler,Kellen Driscoll,Oscar Lilac,
	Amsterdam	Foothills Council	7-4	#25	AA	54	23.83%	Aundray Fowler,
1/12/2024	Schuylerville	Foothills Council	8-3	#24	B	56	50.07%	Griffin Brophy,Luke Sherman,
	South Glens Falls	Foothills Council	8-3	#36	AA	56	49.93%	Brady Smith,
1/12/2024	Queensbury	Foothills Council	3-9	#40	AA	53	50.00%	Chase Baker,Kasigh Gooden,
	Scotia	Foothills Council	3-8	#41	A	53	50.00%	Fermin Fabian,
1/12/2024	Johnstown	Foothills Council	5-6	#42	B	55	50.04%	Ryan Hoyt,
	Hudson Falls	Foothills Council	4-7	#44	A	55	49.96%	Brady Smith,Jayden Hardwick,
1/12/2024	Gloversville	Foothills Council	7-4	#22	A	58	65.60%	Rocco Insonia,
	Broadalbin-Perth	Foothills Council	2-9	#49	A	48	34.40%	Brad Savoie,Landon Russom,
1/12/2024	Hudson	Patroon Conference	10-1	#27	B	61	62.90%	Jordan Cunningham,Keith Robinson,
	Maple Hill	Patroon Conference	8-3	#47	C	53	37.10%	Brady Cole,Nick Novak,
1/12/2024	Rensselaer	Patroon Conference	3-6	#75	B	55	50.01%	Andrew Alvarado,Noah Vogel,Savion Stallworth,
	Catskill	Patroon Conference	2-9	#78	B	55	49.99%	Collin Shook,Makhai Henry,
1/12/2024	Watervliet	Patroon Conference	11-1	#32	B	59	62.22%	Daheem Wilson,Tyler Holloway,
	Greenville	Patroon Conference	7-4	#46	B	51	37.78%	Jack Giarusso,Jonas Britton,
1/12/2024	Germantown	Patroon Conference	3-6	#76	C	49	50.00%	Kyan Anderson,
	Coxsackie-Athens	Patroon Conference	1-8	#77	B	49	50.00%	Robert Hughes,
1/12/2024	Chatham	Patroon Conference	5-5	#53	C	60	73.28%	Jacob Taylor,Lennie Sitzer,Tate Van Alstyne,
	Cairo-Durham	Patroon Conference	2-8	#72	B	45	26.72%	Jake Young,Terrell Simmons,
1/12/2024	Schenectady	Suburban Council	6-5	#13	AAA	71	68.22%	Andre Jackson,Quymaine Haggray,Veras,
	Troy	Suburban Council	2-8	#33	AA	59	31.78%	Legend Merritt,Stetson Merritt,
1/12/2024	Shen	Suburban Council	5-7	#14	AAA	56	53.71%	Bega Ibrahim,Grady Ceccucci,
	Saratoga	Suburban Council	6-4	#18	AAA	54	46.29%	Andrew Stallmer,Antone Robbens,Ryan Farr,
1/12/2024	Niskayuna	Suburban Council	9-1	#12	AA	58	57.34%	Daniel Smalls,Ethan Gilson,Gavin Olsen,
	Ballston Spa	Suburban Council	4-7	#19	AA	54	42.66%	Nico Savini,
1/12/2024	Bethlehem	Suburban Council	9-3	#8	AA	58	59.62%	Cam LaClair,Kieran Barnes,
	Burnt Hills	Suburban Council	6-3	#16	AA	52	40.38%	Ben Kline,John Klopfer,
1/12/2024	CBA	Suburban Council	7-3	#9	AAA	73	71.51%	Jayden Osinski,JT Vogel,Matt Sgambati,
	Albany	Suburban Council	4-6	#23	AAA	59	28.49%	Daniel Covington,Sincere Allah,
1/12/2024	Colonie	Suburban Council	10-0	#3	AAA	63	57.07%	Cam Trimarchi,Julius Reed,
	Shaker	Suburban Council	9-1	#10	AAA	58	42.93%	Bless Demand,Tye Mariano,
1/12/2024	Columbia	Suburban Council	4-8	#17	AA	56	62.14%	Evan Rainville,Zander Poissant,
	Averill Park	Suburban Council	4-8	#38	AA	48	37.86%	Ethan Nardacci,Jacob Phelps,
1/12/2024	Hoosick Falls	Wasaren League	6-5	#29	B	72	79.91%	Andrew Sparks,Richie Stifter,Carson Glover,
	Cambridge	Wasaren League	3-8	#57	C	51	20.09%	L. MacDougal,Travis Yurschik,
1/12/2024	Stillwater	Wasaren League	11-0	#11	B	64	70.43%	Jaxon Mueller,Lukas Lilac,Kaelan Leak
	Hoosic Valley	Wasaren League	8-4	#31	C	50	29.57%	Chris Jones,Isaac Wiley,
1/12/2024	Tamarac	Wasaren League	3-6	#45	B	60	62.89%	Adam Rice,Kamerin Edmonds,
	Saratoga Catholic	Wasaren League	7-5	#51	C	51	37.11%	Tyler Hicks,
1/12/2024	Mechanicville	Wasaren League	8-2	#26	B	68	80.04%	Colin Richardson,Cruz Goverski,
	Waterford	Wasaren League	1-11	#67	C	47	19.96%	Derrick Pontore,
1/12/2024	Berne-Knox	Western Athletic Conference	8-4	#48	C	60	52.84%	AJ Wright,Blake Shaver,Dayne Coates,Shane Kirker,
	NDBG	Western Athletic Conference	4-8	#50	B	59	47.16%	Esiasyn Starr,Lincoln Baldwin,
1/12/2024	Canajoharie	Western Athletic Conference	3-6	#70	C	51	55.47%	Antonio Fairley,
	Mayfield	Western Athletic Conference	3-8	#82	C	48	44.53%	Brody Page,Sean Foreman,
1/12/2024	Fonda	Western Athletic Conference	8-1	#21	B	63	86.98%	Brady Melious,Riley Wilson,
	Schoharie	Western Athletic Conference	3-7	#68	C	35	13.02%	Matt Bernhardt,Preston DiGiovanni,
1/12/2024	Middleburgh	Western Athletic Conference	7-4	#79	C	44	50.05%	Eric Pickering,JJ Narzymski,
	Fort Plain	Western Athletic Conference	5-7	#83	C	44	49.95%	Dylan Keane,
1/12/2024	Duanesburg	Western Athletic Conference	11-2	#20	C	71	91.80%	Ethan Thompson,Jeffrey Mulhern,
	Northville	Western Athletic Conference	7-4	#80	D	36	8.20%	Evan Mutz,

(Girls) 

		GIRLS						Top 150 per game scorer on Timesunion.com
Date	Team	League	Record	Overall	Class	Score	Win %
1/12/2024	Shen	Suburban Council	8-1	#2	AAA	60	79.51%	Abby Stuart,Gabby Stuart,Kate Milham,
	Saratoga	Suburban Council	2-9	#18	AAA	40	20.49%	Carly Wise,
1/12/2024	Averill Park	Suburban Council	10-0	#1	AA	59	72.38%	Arianna Verardi,Kayleigh Ahern,Tatiana Tune,Taylor Holohan,
	Columbia	Suburban Council	7-4	#8	AA	44	27.62%	Alivia Landy,Kendyl Ouimette,Sarah Rainville,
1/12/2024	Chatham	Patroon Conference	3-5	#56	C	51	74.33%
	Cairo-Durham	Patroon Conference	0-7	#76	B	35	25.67%	Mackenzie Sherburne,
1/12/2024	Ballston Spa	Suburban Council	8-4	#16	AA	45	50.02%	Aubrey Kramer,Chloe Rhoden,Sophia Lee,
	Niskayuna	Suburban Council	7-4	#19	AA	45	49.98%	Olivia O'Meally,Skye Linyear,
1/12/2024	Schalmont	Colonial Council	5-5	#17	A	54	81.00%	Arianna Brandon,Gianna Cirilla,Karissa Antoine,
	Cohoes	Colonial Council	2-9	#40	A	32	19.00%	Taylor Hickey,
1/12/2024	Mohonasen	Colonial Council	6-5	#14	AA	57	80.90%	Caitlyn Richmond,Isabella Petrocci,
	La Salle	Colonial Council	3-8	#38	B	35	19.10%	Kate Gilooly,
1/12/2024	Holy Names	Colonial Council	7-5	#20	A	60	87.94%	Maggie Volmer,Morgan Brewer,Ryan Carroll,
	Ravena	Colonial Council	1-8	#55	A	31	12.06%	Hayden Wolfe,
1/12/2024	Catholic Cent.	Colonial Council	7-1	#4	A	65	91.81%	Akarri Gaddy,El' Dior Dobere,Gabriella Di Bacco,Kristen Foglia,Tanavia Turpin,
	Voorheesville	Colonial Council	4-3	#37	B	30	8.19%	Mia Carmody,
1/12/2024	Troy	Suburban Council	2-7	#34	AA	53	63.69%
	Schenectady	Suburban Council	0-7	#53	AAA	44	36.31%
1/12/2024	Shaker	Suburban Council	9-3	#6	AAA	57	67.06%	Jayla Geter,Lexi Carrington,Peyton Hoblock,Sierra Carter,
	Colonie	Suburban Council	5-6	#12	AAA	46	32.94%	Aliyah Pearson,
1/12/2024	Bethlehem	Suburban Council	5-5	#7	AA	55	66.93%	Caroline Davis,Kaitlyn Robbins,Kelsey vonWedel,
	Burnt Hills	Suburban Council	5-6	#10	AA	44	33.07%	Taniyah Monforte,Teagan Keane,
1/12/2024	Berne-Knox	Western Athletic Conference	11-0	#32	C	59	87.91%	Annie Lendrum,Bella Daguillo,Emily Edwards,Katie Stevens,Molly Shaver,
	Mekeel C.A.	Western Athletic Conference	3-4	#73	C	30	12.09%
1/12/2024	Catskill	Patroon Conference	2-4	#57	B	42	50.00%	Ava Edmond,Natalia DiCaprio,
	Rensselaer	Patroon Conference	1-5	#58	B	42	50.00%	Harmony Lawson,Joslyn Teal,
1/12/2024	Hadley-Luzerne	Adirondack League	5-7	#65	C	36	50.21%
	Fort Ann	Adirondack League	4-7	#70	D	36	49.79%
1/12/2024	Corinth	Adirondack League	8-1	#45	B	47	77.69%
	Salem	Adirondack League	4-7	#67	D	28	22.31%
1/12/2024	Warrensburg	Adirondack League	10-2	#49	C	46	77.46%	Eliana York,Hope Sherman,Zailey Baker,
	Argyle	Adirondack League	2-11	#72	D	27	22.54%
1/12/2024	Maple Hill	Patroon Conference	8-1	#26	C	49	61.55%	Addi Loszynski,Kate Brodzinski,Rosilee Forrest,Sydney Rogers,
	Hudson	Patroon Conference	6-4	#36	B	42	38.45%	Amya Moore,Maliah Jackson,
1/12/2024	Greenville	Patroon Conference	8-1	#27	B	46	61.52%	Aislinn O'Hare,Bryn Fitzmaurice,Charlotte Dawson,Emily Smith,
	Watervliet	Patroon Conference	4-3	#35	B	38	38.48%	Jessenia George,Zoie Wass,
1/12/2024	North Warren	Adirondack League	3-7	#66	D	32	50.07%
	Whitehall	Adirondack League	4-7	#69	C	32	49.93%	Cheyenne Holman,
1/12/2024	Lake George	Adirondack League	3-9	#62	C	40	50.02%
	Hartford	Adirondack League	7-3	#63	D	40	49.98%