(Maple Hill's Halle Feldman from earlier in the season. Photo by Ed Bemiss.)
Every tournament takes into account each team’s current ranking and their current path to the title. Teams are broken down into 4 different categories based on their overall chance to win it all according to the rankings. They are as followed:
Each team is automatically classified into four categories based on their pre-tournament odds of winning their respective bracket. Here’s the key:
>= 25% chance to win= Favorite
>= 10% & < 25% chance to win= Contender
>= 5% & < 10% chance to win= Dark Horse
< 5% chance to win= Long Shot
Softball Brackets from 518softball.org
Computer Rankings link Here:
Game by game score projections are listed below the bracket predictions.
Class AAA
Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings.
Full Bracket Projections
| Class AAA | Winning | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Champ | Projection | |
| Colonie 1 | 100.00% | 63.70% | 34.036% | 34.036% | Favorite |
| Shenendehowa 2 | 100.00% | 56.72% | 30.893% | 30.893% | Favorite |
| Shaker 3 | 100.00% | 43.28% | 20.691% | 20.6905% | Contender |
| Saratoga Springs 4 | 50.75% | 18.60% | 7.434% | 7.434% | Dark Horse |
| Guilderland 5 | 49.25% | 17.70% | 6.947% | 6.947% | Dark Horse |
Class AA
Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings and thoughts on each classification.
Full Bracket Projections
| Class AA | Winning | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| Rd 16 | QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Burnt Hills 1 | 100.00% | 77.29% | 46.43% | 27.81% | Favorite |
| Bethlehem 4 | 100.00% | 64.40% | 32.98% | 18.12% | Contender |
| Averill Park 2 | 100.00% | 52.55% | 32.72% | 16.59% | Contender |
| Ballston Spa 7 | 94.38% | 47.13% | 29.32% | 14.84% | Contender |
| Columbia 6 | 100.00% | 60.21% | 25.16% | 10.69% | Contender |
| Troy 5 | 100.00% | 35.60% | 13.31% | 5.39% | Dark Horse |
| South Glens Falls 3 | 100.00% | 39.79% | 12.76% | 4.20% | Long Shot |
| Niskayuna 8 | 59.30% | 15.14% | 5.26% | 1.82% | Long Shot |
| Queensbury 9 | 40.70% | 7.57% | 2.02% | 0.53% | Long Shot |
| Amsterdam 10 | 5.62% | 0.31% | 0.03% | 0.002% | Long Shot |
Class A
Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings.
Full Bracket Projections
| Class A | Winning | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Champ | Projection | |
| Ichabod Crane 1 | 88.65% | 52.07% | 30.779% | 30.779% | Favorite |
| Hudson Falls 2 | 71.98% | 41.98% | 21.31% | 21.308% | Contender |
| Scotia-Glenville 3 | 71.66% | 38.67% | 18.761% | 18.7606% | Contender |
| Glens Falls 5 | 55.12% | 26.59% | 14.046% | 14.046% | Contender |
| Schalmont 4 | 44.88% | 19.50% | 9.322% | 9.322% | Dark Horse |
| Cohoes 7 | 28.02% | 10.14% | 2.940% | 2.940% | Long Shot |
| Lansingburgh 6 | 28.34% | 9.21% | 2.526% | 2.526% | Long Shot |
| Broadalbin-Perth 8 | 11.35% | 1.84% | 0.318% | 0.318% | Long Shot |
Class B
Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings.
Full Bracket Projections
| Class B | Winning | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| Rd 16 | QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Chatham 1 | 100.00% | 90.63% | 66.41% | 46.005% | Favorite |
| Tamarac 2 | 100.00% | 71.52% | 49.82% | 23.253% | Contender |
| Catholic Central/NDBG 4 | 94.89% | 67.23% | 24.22% | 12.507% | Contender |
| Hoosick Falls 3 | 83.34% | 58.28% | 25.78% | 9.210% | Dark Horse |
| Schuylerville 10 | 66.55% | 22.01% | 11.84% | 3.664% | Long Shot |
| Mechanicville 5 | 77.25% | 28.51% | 6.58% | 2.385% | Long Shot |
| Taconic Hills 6 | 50.33% | 18.32% | 4.75% | 0.935% | Long Shot |
| Voorheesville 11 | 49.67% | 17.94% | 4.61% | 0.897% | Long Shot |
| Coxsackie-Athens 8 | 59.32% | 6.48% | 1.85% | 0.461% | Long Shot |
| Cobleskill 7 | 33.45% | 6.47% | 2.44% | 0.450% | Long Shot |
| Fonda 9 | 40.68% | 2.90% | 0.62% | 0.114% | Long Shot |
| La Salle 14 | 16.66% | 5.46% | 0.77% | 0.078% | Long Shot |
| Corinth 12 | 22.75% | 3.46% | 0.28% | 0.040% | Long Shot |
| Watervliet/Heatly 13 | 5.11% | 0.80% | 0.03% | 0.002% | Long Shot |
Class C
Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings.
Full Bracket Projections
| Class C | Winning | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| Rd 16 | QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Greenwich 1 | 88.57% | 69.01% | 55.34% | 43.055% | Favorite |
| Galway 2 | 89.12% | 59.20% | 38.73% | 16.418% | Contender |
| Maple Hill 3 | 72.75% | 46.60% | 23.25% | 8.325% | Dark Horse |
| Berne-Knox-Westerlo 4 | 78.08% | 47.05% | 15.34% | 8.091% | Dark Horse |
| Stillwater 8 | 75.21% | 23.64% | 13.96% | 7.794% | Dark Horse |
| Granville 5 | 68.65% | 35.54% | 10.25% | 4.948% | Long Shot |
| Saratoga Catholic 10 | 57.77% | 23.94% | 12.55% | 3.843% | Long Shot |
| Duanesburg 6 | 50.92% | 21.82% | 8.01% | 1.981% | Long Shot |
| Schoharie 11 | 49.08% | 20.60% | 7.39% | 1.778% | Long Shot |
| Mayfield 7 | 42.23% | 14.57% | 6.53% | 1.609% | Long Shot |
| Hoosic Valley 14 | 27.25% | 10.99% | 3.06% | 0.549% | Long Shot |
| OESJ/Waterford 16/17 | 11.43% | 3.99% | 1.49% | 0.510% | Long Shot |
| Cambridge 12 | 31.35% | 10.61% | 1.68% | 0.509% | Long Shot |
| Whitehall 9 | 24.79% | 3.35% | 1.11% | 0.338% | Long Shot |
| Lake George 13 | 21.92% | 6.80% | 0.84% | 0.207% | Long Shot |
| Fort Plain 15 | 10.88% | 2.30% | 0.48% | 0.045% | Long Shot |
Class D
Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings.
Full Bracket Projections
| Class D | Winning | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| Rd 16 | QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Salem 1 | 100.00% | 67.64% | 36.21% | 36.207% | Favorite |
| Argyle 3 | 91.47% | 52.80% | 29.12% | 29.119% | Favorite |
| Fort Ann 2 | 100.00% | 46.18% | 21.97% | 21.967% | Contender |
| Hartford 5 | 79.58% | 29.80% | 12.21% | 12.209% | Contender |
| Germantown 4 | 20.42% | 2.57% | 0.38% | 0.381% | Long Shot |
| Northville 6 | 8.53% | 1.02% | 0.12% | 0.117% | Long Shot |
Score projections will be updated daily. I will also track how the seedings do against the computer rankings. Higher seed is awarded a win if higher seed wins. A loss if higher seed loses. Computer rankings will get a win if higher ranked team wins. Will get a loss if higher ranked team loses according to the computer rankings.
Seedings (39-15)
Computer Rankings (41-13)
| Seeding | Rankings | ||||||
| Date | Team | Class | Overall | Score | Win % | ||
| 5/19/2025 | OESJ | C | #51 | 12.8 | 84.29% | W | W |
| Waterford | C | #73 | 4.2 | 15.71% | |||
| 5/20/2025 | Ballston Spa | AA | #6 | 13.5 | 94.38% | W | W |
| Amsterdam | AA | #47 | 0.0 | 5.62% | |||
| 5/20/2025 | Berne-Knox-Westerlo | C | #31 | 10.0 | 78.08% | W | W |
| Lake George | C | #60 | 3.4 | 21.92% | |||
| 5/20/2025 | Catholic Central/NDBG | B | #21 | 15.6 | 94.89% | W | W |
| Watervliet/Heatly | B | #63 | 1.7 | 5.11% | |||
| 5/20/2025 | Schuylerville | B | #25 | 7.9 | 66.55% | L | |
| Cobleskill | B | #38 | 4.3 | 33.45% | W | ||
| 5/20/2025 | Coxsackie-Athens | B | #41 | 8.8 | 59.32% | L | L |
| Fonda | B | #49 | 6.8 | 40.68% | |||
| 5/20/2025 | Duanesburg | C | #45 | 7.7 | 50.92% | W | W |
| Schoharie | C | #48 | 7.5 | 49.08% | |||
| 5/20/2025 | Galway | C | #26 | 12.4 | 89.12% | W | W |
| Fort Plain | C | #62 | 2.0 | 10.88% | |||
| 5/20/2025 | Granville | C | #39 | 9.7 | 68.65% | W | W |
| Cambridge | C | #57 | 5.6 | 31.35% | |||
| 5/20/2025 | Greenwich | C | #17 | 12.6 | 88.03% | W | W |
| OESJ | C | #51 | 2.6 | 11.97% | |||
| 5/20/2025 | Hoosick Falls | B | #24 | 11.6 | 83.34% | W | W |
| La Salle | B | #52 | 3.3 | 16.66% | |||
| 5/20/2025 | Maple Hill | C | #32 | 10.8 | 72.75% | W | W |
| Hoosic Valley | C | #58 | 5.6 | 27.25% | |||
| 5/20/2025 | Saratoga Catholic | C | #40 | 8.4 | 57.77% | W | |
| Mayfield | C | #46 | 6.8 | 42.23% | L | ||
| 5/20/2025 | Mechanicville | B | #28 | 10.7 | 77.25% | W | W |
| Corinth | B | #55 | 4.3 | 22.75% | |||
| 5/20/2025 | Niskayuna | AA | #18 | 7.8 | 59.30% | L | L |
| Queensbury | AA | #23 | 5.8 | 40.70% | |||
| 5/20/2025 | Stillwater | C | #30 | 10.7 | 75.21% | W | W |
| Whitehall | C | #56 | 4.9 | 24.79% | |||
| 5/20/2025 | Taconic Hills | B | #33 | 5.5 | 50.33% | L | L |
| Voorheesville | B | #34 | 5.4 | 49.67% | |||
| 5/21/2025 | Averill Park | AA | #5 | 5.0 | 50.53% | W | W |
| Ballston Spa | AA | #6 | 4.9 | 49.47% | |||
| 5/21/2025 | Berne-Knox-Westerlo | C | #31 | 7.6 | 54.61% | L | L |
| Granville | C | #39 | 6.6 | 45.39% | |||
| 5/21/2025 | Burnt Hills | AA | #3 | 9.5 | 78.06% | W | W |
| Queensbury | AA | #23 | 3.0 | 21.94% | |||
| 5/21/2025 | Chatham | B | #8 | 13.2 | 90.96% | W | W |
| Fonda | B | #49 | 1.8 | 9.04% | |||
| 5/21/2025 | Hudson Falls | A | #15 | 8.2 | 71.98% | W | W |
| Cohoes | A | #27 | 3.2 | 28.02% | |||
| 5/21/2025 | Ichabod Crane | A | #13 | 11.6 | 88.65% | W | W |
| Broadalbin-Perth | A | #44 | 1.4 | 11.35% | |||
| 5/21/2025 | Maple Hill | C | #32 | 8.1 | 63.63% | W | W |
| Duanesburg | C | #45 | 5.1 | 36.37% | |||
| 5/21/2025 | Saratoga Springs | AAA | #9 | 5.3 | 50.75% | W | W |
| Guilderland | AAA | #10 | 5.2 | 49.25% | |||
| 5/21/2025 | Glens Falls | A | #20 | 5.7 | 55.12% | W | |
| Schalmont | A | #22 | 4.6 | 44.88% | L | ||
| 5/21/2025 | Bethlehem | AA | #4 | 7.3 | 64.40% | L | L |
| Troy | AA | #12 | 4.1 | 35.60% | |||
| 5/21/2025 | Catholic Central/NDBG | B | #21 | 8.3 | 68.04% | W | W |
| Mechanicville | B | #28 | 4.3 | 31.96% | |||
| 5/21/2025 | Galway | C | #26 | 8.9 | 59.39% | W | W |
| Saratoga Catholic | C | #40 | 6.8 | 40.61% | |||
| 5/21/2025 | Hartford | D | #50 | 11.0 | 79.58% | W | |
| Germantown | D | #66 | 4.0 | 20.42% | L | ||
| 5/21/2025 | Greenwich | C | #17 | 10.5 | 71.79% | L | L |
| Stillwater | C | #30 | 5.6 | 28.21% | |||
| 5/21/2025 | Hoosick Falls | B | #24 | 8.0 | 70.08% | W | W |
| Voorheesville | B | #34 | 3.6 | 29.92% | |||
| 5/21/2025 | Scotia-Glenville | A | #19 | 8.5 | 71.66% | L | L |
| Lansingburgh | A | #29 | 3.6 | 28.34% | |||
| 5/21/2025 | Columbia | AA | #11 | 5.7 | 60.21% | L | |
| South Glens Falls | AA | #16 | 3.5 | 39.79% | W | ||
| 5/21/2025 | Tamarac | B | #14 | 9.1 | 76.19% | W | W |
| Cobleskill | B | #38 | 3.0 | 23.81% | |||
| Seeding | Rankings | ||||||
| Date | Team | Class | Overall | Score | Win % | ||
| 5/22/2025 | Argyle | D | #36 | 12.5 | 91.10% | W | W |
| Northville | D | #71 | 1.1 | 8.90% | |||
| 5/27/2025 | Shenendehowa | AAA | #2 | 6.2 | 61.29% | W | W |
| Shaker | AAA | #7 | 3.7 | 38.71% | |||
| 5/27/2025 | Colonie | AAA | #1 | 7.0 | 62.02% | W | W |
| Saratoga Springs | AAA | #9 | 4.4 | 37.98% | |||
| 5/27/2025 | Burnt Hills | AA | #3 | 7.1 | 64.24% | W | W |
| Troy | AA | #12 | 4.0 | 35.76% | |||
| 5/27/2025 | Averill Park | AA | #5 | 6.4 | 64.03% | W | W |
| South Glens Falls | AA | #16 | 3.3 | 35.97% | |||
| 5/27/2025 | Ichabod Crane | A | #13 | 6.1 | 56.49% | W | W |
| Glens Falls | A | #20 | 4.7 | 43.51% | |||
| 5/27/2025 | Hudson Falls | A | #15 | 8.7 | 69.74% | W | W |
| Lansingburgh | A | #29 | 4.4 | 30.26% | |||
| 5/27/2025 | Chatham | B | #8 | 8.7 | 66.33% | W | W |
| Catholic Central/NDBG | B | #21 | 5.1 | 33.67% | |||
| 5/27/2025 | Tamarac | B | #14 | 7.5 | 61.72% | W | W |
| Hoosick Falls | B | #24 | 4.9 | 38.28% | |||
| 5/27/2025 | Stillwater | C | #30 | 8.9 | 59.97% | W | |
| Granville | C | #39 | 6.7 | 40.03% | L | ||
| 5/27/2025 | Galway | C | #26 | 7.9 | 59.27% | W | W |
| Maple Hill | C | #32 | 5.9 | 40.73% | |||
| 5/27/2025 | Salem | D | #37 | 7.5 | 63.49% | W | W |
| Hartford | D | #50 | 4.6 | 36.51% | |||
| 5/27/2025 | Argyle | D | #36 | 5.8 | 52.13% | W | |
| Fort Ann | D | #42 | 5.4 | 47.87% | L | ||
| 5/29/2025 | Colonie | AAA | #1 | 5.1 | 50.52% | L | L |
| Shenendehowa | AAA | #2 | 5.0 | 49.48% | |||
| 5/29/2025 | Burnt Hills | AA | #3 | 5.4 | 57.28% | W | W |
| Averill Park | AA | #5 | 3.8 | 42.72% | |||
| 5/29/2025 | Hudson Falls | A | #15 | 6.2 | 50.47% | L | |
| Ichabod Crane | A | #13 | 6.1 | 49.53% | W | ||
| 5/29/2025 | Chatham | B | #8 | 7.5 | 60.09% | W | W |
| Tamarac | B | #14 | 5.3 | 39.91% | |||
| 5/29/2025 | Galway | C | #26 | 8.0 | 51.90% | L | L |
| Stillwater | C | #30 | 7.6 | 48.10% | |||
| 5/29/2025 | Salem | D | #37 | 6.0 | 54.73% | L | L |
| Argyle | D | #36 | 5.0 | 45.27% |
(Averill Park)
Full game video highlights of the Class D semi-final round game between Hartford vs Salem. Hartford held on for a 56-50 win. They advance to the Class D final on March 2nd at HVCC vs Bishop Gibbons.
The Tanagers started the game down 11-0 and battled their way back to a close game by halftime. Late in the fourth quarter Hartford's Cailin Severance hit a three pointer to give them a one point lead 46-45. Then Salem's Sophia Keys scored to tie the game at 49 with two minutes left in regulation. Freshman Mckenzie Johnson of Hartford went four for four in the closing seconds from the free throw line to seal the win.
(Shen's Kate Milham attacking the hoop in a game earlier this season at Columbia. Photo by Ed Bemiss.)
Every tournament takes into account each team’s current ranking and their current path to the title. Teams are broken down into 4 different categories based on their overall chance to win it all according to the rankings. They are as followed:
Each team is automatically classified into four categories based on their pre-tournament odds of winning their respective bracket. Here’s the key:
>= 25% chance to win= Favorite
>= 10% & < 25% chance to win= Contender
>= 5% & < 10% chance to win= Dark Horse
< 5% chance to win= Long Shot
NEW! H.S. hoop simulation. Play a single game or sim any of this year's tournaments.
Section2Basketball.com Game Simulator
Class AAA
Sectional brackets. Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings and thoughts on each classification.
Full Bracket Projections
| Class AAA Girls | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Shaker- 1 | 100.00% | 86.32% | 50.58% | Favorite |
| Colonie- 2 | 99.52% | 55.32% | 26.54% | Favorite |
| Shen- 3 | 94.07% | 44.35% | 19.98% | Contender |
| Albany- 4 | 72.17% | 12.01% | 2.73% | Long Shot |
| Saratoga- 5 | 27.83% | 1.67% | 0.15% | Long Shot |
| Guilderland- 6 | 5.93% | 0.32% | 0.02% | Long Shot |
| Schenectady- 7 | 0.48% | 0.01% | 0.00% | Long Shot |
A few questions based on the numbers:
Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?
Yes, well sort of. Shaker and Colonie project as the top two contenders but this tournament features three teams in Shaker, Colonie and Shen that are among the top Class AAA teams in the state, let alone in Section 2. Shaker is considered the favorite and have beaten both Colonie and Shenendehowa but they should get tested in the later rounds. The Blue Bison have the made the finals the last two years but have lost to their rival Colonie in both games. One of their top players, Jayla Geter, has been out with an injury but Shaker has talented players to pick up the Geter's production while she's out. They include Peyton Hoblock, Malia Jackson, Sofia and Giada Lanni. The Blue Bison currently ride a 6 game winning streak heading into the tournament.
Colonie is vying for a third consecutive championship and are led by Olivia Hoffman, Ella Trimarchi and Aliyah Pearson. Head coach Heather DiBiase just became the schools all-time wins leader and continues to find a way to win close games.
Shen has won 18 games in a row after losing to Colonie and Shaker to open the season. The Plainsmen have a talented group led by Kate Milham, Gianna Winter, Gianna Sodon, Charlotte Baroody and Mya Parker. They took Shaker to overtime in the semi-finals of last year's tournament and shouldn't be discounted.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below the top contenders that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?
Albany. Coach Decky Lawson has a younger group this season but Akarri Gaddy is a force down low and is a tough matchup.
Additional thoughts:
If things hold true to seeding you may see two of the best games in all of the tournaments if Shen plays Colonie in one Semi-Final and then the title game vs. Shaker.
🏀 Class AAA Girls — Model Snapshot
🔥 At a Glance
-
Top Title Chances:
Shaker (50.58%)
Colonie (26.54%)
Shen (19.98%) -
🎢 Chaos Index (Top 3 Combined): 97.10%
→ Extreme Chalk -
⚡ Clear Favorite:
Shaker controls over half of championship equity.
🎯 Model Read
Class AAA projects as the most top-concentrated bracket on the Girls side.
Shaker enters with 50.58% championship probability — a commanding edge, as they are the only team with a bye. Colonie (26.54%) and Shen (19.98%) form a strong secondary tier, but together the top three teams account for over 97% of title equity.
There is virtually no statistical pathway for the lower half of the bracket to capture the championship.
🚨 Upset Alert
Early-round volatility is minimal:
-
Shaker and Colonie both project near automatic to reach the semifinals.
-
The semifinal tier is where resistance begins, not before.
This bracket is structured to hold to form.
🎯 Seed vs Model Check
-
The model strongly validates seed order at the top.
-
Seeds 1, 2, and 3 align exactly with championship probability order.
-
No lower seed exceeds 3% title equity.
This is one of the cleanest seed-to-model alignments so far.
🏀 Bottom Line
Class AAA Girls is chalk-driven and top-heavy. The championship path runs squarely through Shaker, with Colonie and Shen as the only realistic challengers. Anything outside the top three would qualify as a major upset.
Click team name for season results.
| Albany | AAA |
| Colonie | AAA |
| Guilderland | AAA |
| Saratoga | AAA |
| Schenectady | AAA |
| Shaker | AAA |
| Shen | AAA |
Class AA
Sectional brackets. Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings and thoughts on each classification.
Full Bracket Projections
| Class AA Girls | Winning | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| Rd 16 | QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Columbia- 1 | 100.00% | 81.54% | 56.72% | 35.93% | Favorite |
| Troy- 2 | 100.00% | 72.09% | 50.87% | 28.16% | Favorite |
| Bethlehem- 4 | 100.00% | 53.30% | 20.34% | 9.23% | Dark Horse |
| Burnt Hills- 3 | 100.00% | 60.79% | 22.66% | 8.51% | Dark Horse |
| Mohonasen- 5 | 100.00% | 46.70% | 16.45% | 6.94% | Dark Horse |
| Ballston Spa- 7 | 82.18% | 26.43% | 14.09% | 5.34% | Dark Horse |
| Amsterdam- 6 | 80.36% | 36.02% | 11.75% | 3.87% | Long Shot |
| Niskayuna- 8 | 54.28% | 10.73% | 3.95% | 1.25% | Long Shot |
| South Glens Falls- 9 | 45.72% | 7.73% | 2.54% | 0.71% | Long Shot |
| Queensbury- 10 | 17.82% | 1.48% | 0.30% | 0.04% | Long Shot |
| Catholic Cent.- 11 | 19.64% | 3.19% | 0.32% | 0.03% | Long Shot |
A few questions based on the numbers:
Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?
Two. Columbia and Troy have separated themselves as top contenders. Columbia beat Troy 65-39 earlier in the season. The Blue Devils are led by Sarah Rainville who averages over 24 points per game. They are a small team but they turn defense into offense and are very athletic. Troy features two Freshman, Amaya Harris and Kiana Tiernan, who lead the charge for the Flying Horses. Troy has won 13 games in a row heading into the tournament and I have to believe getting sectional experience last year with such a young team has to help them better prepare for this year's tournament.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below the top contenders that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?
Yes. Bethlehem, Burnt Hills, Mohonasen and Ballston Spa.
Additional thoughts:
Games to watch early: --- the 8/9 game between Niskayuna (54.28%) vs South Glens Falls (45.72%)
🏀 Class AA Girls — Model Snapshot
🔥 At a Glance
-
Top Title Chances:
Columbia (35.93%)
Troy (28.16%) -
🎢 Chaos Index (Top 3 Combined): 73.32%
→ Lean Chalk -
⚡ Deep Secondary Tier:
Bethlehem (9.23%)
Burnt Hills (8.51%)
Mohonasen (6.94%)
Ballston Spa (5.34%)
🎯 Model Read
Class AA projects as a two-team race at the top, with Columbia and Troy combining for over 64% of championship equity.
Unlike AAA, however, the secondary tier carries meaningful semifinal equity. Bethlehem and Burnt Hills both project above 20% to reach the final four, creating legitimate resistance before the championship game.
The bracket leans chalk, but not overwhelmingly so.
🚨 Upset Alert
The 6–8 seed range shows tighter margins:
-
Ballston Spa (82.18%)
-
Amsterdam (80.36%)
-
Niskayuna (54.28%)
Quarterfinal reshuffling is more plausible than early-round chaos.
🎯 Seed vs Model Check
-
The model validates the top two seeds — Columbia and Troy sit clearly above the field.
-
Seeds 3 through 6 cluster closely in championship equity, suggesting competitive quarterfinals.
-
No lower seed projects above 4% title probability.
This bracket follows seed structure at the top but shows depth in the middle tier.
🏀 Bottom Line
Class AA Girls leans toward a Columbia–Troy championship path, but the secondary tier is strong enough to influence semifinal outcomes. Expect stability early, with the real tension building in the final four.
Click team name for season results.
| Amsterdam | AA |
| Ballston Spa | AA |
| Bethlehem | AA |
| Burnt Hills | AA |
| Catholic Cent. | AA |
| Columbia | AA |
| Mohonasen | AA |
| Niskayuna | AA |
| Queensbury | AA |
| South Glens Falls | AA |
| Troy | AA |
Class A
Sectional brackets. Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings and thoughts on each classification.
Full Bracket Projections
| Class A Girls | Winning | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| Rd 16 | QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Albany Academy- 1 | 100.00% | 89.44% | 74.34% | 58.95% | Favorite |
| Glens Falls- 2 | 100.00% | 78.48% | 49.68% | 17.27% | Contender |
| Holy Names- 3 | 91.63% | 62.57% | 30.89% | 9.00% | Dark Horse |
| Averill Park- 4 | 83.59% | 54.11% | 13.87% | 7.07% | Dark Horse |
| Schalmont- 5 | 75.00% | 35.17% | 6.82% | 2.88% | Long Shot |
| Scotia- 6 | 65.92% | 26.73% | 9.77% | 1.91% | Long Shot |
| Broadalbin-Perth- 8 | 54.02% | 6.16% | 2.57% | 0.93% | Long Shot |
| ICC- 7 | 60.62% | 14.87% | 5.54% | 0.87% | Long Shot |
| Ravena- 9 | 45.98% | 4.40% | 1.67% | 0.55% | Long Shot |
| Watervliet- 11 | 34.08% | 9.11% | 2.12% | 0.24% | Long Shot |
| Cobleskill- 10 | 39.38% | 6.65% | 1.86% | 0.20% | Long Shot |
| Hudson Falls- 12 | 25.00% | 5.99% | 0.43% | 0.09% | Long Shot |
| Cohoes- 13 | 16.41% | 4.73% | 0.30% | 0.05% | Long Shot |
| Lansingburgh- 14 | 8.37% | 1.59% | 0.15% | 0.01% | Long Shot |
A few questions based on the numbers:
Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?
Yes. Albany Academy is looking to secure their fourth straight sectional title and are a heavy favorite to do so. Alex Leonard and Morgan Vien have been top players for the Bears on multiple title teams. Nayla Macon, Amia Rodriguez and Annabel Conway are other names to watch.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below the top contenders that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?
It doesn't look like any team beyond the top four can ultimately win this tournament but that doesn't mean a team seeded #4 or below couldn't win two games and get to the Semi-Finals.
Additional thoughts:
Ichabod Crane and Cobleskill are both riding three game winning streaks and face off in an opening round tilt. Should be a good one.
🏀 Class A Girls — Model Snapshot
🔥 At a Glance
-
Top Title Chances:
Albany Academy (58.95%)
Glens Falls (17.27%)
Holy Names (9.00%) -
🎢 Chaos Index (Top 3 Combined): 85.22%
→ Chalk Heavy -
⚡ Clear Favorite:
Albany Academy controls nearly 60% of championship equity.
🎯 Model Read
Class A Girls projects as a dominant-favorite bracket.
Albany Academy carries 58.95% championship probability — a commanding edge over the field. Combined with Glens Falls, the top two seeds control over 76% of title equity, narrowing the realistic championship path.
After the top three, championship probability drops sharply, with no team above 7%.
🚨 Upset Alert
Early-round stability is strong:
-
The 3/6 and 4/5 ranges carry moderate volatility.
-
Any disruption is far more likely in the semifinal tier than in the opening round.
🎯 Seed vs Model Check
-
The model strongly validates the #1 seed — Albany Academy is the clear favorite.
-
Seeds 2 and 3 align with championship equity order.
-
No lower seed exceeds 3% title probability.
This bracket holds cleanly to seed structure.
🏀 Bottom Line
Class A Girls is favorite-driven, with Albany Academy firmly in control of the title picture. Glens Falls remains the primary challenger, but the numbers suggest the championship path runs squarely through the top seed.
Click team name for season results.
| Albany Academy | A |
| Averill Park | A |
| Broadalbin-Perth | A |
| Cobleskill | A |
| Cohoes | A |
| Emma Willard | A |
| Glens Falls | A |
| Gloversville | A |
| Holy Names | A |
| Hudson | A |
| Hudson Falls | A |
| ICC | A |
| Lansingburgh | A |
| Ravena | A |
| Schalmont | A |
| Scotia | A |
Class B
Sectional brackets. Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings and thoughts on each classification.
Full Bracket Projections
| Class B Girls | Winning | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| Rd 16 | QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Mechanicville- 1 | 100.00% | 82.34% | 54.82% | 34.14% | Favorite |
| Coxsackie-Athens- 2 | 100.00% | 77.34% | 44.15% | 22.06% | Contender |
| Voorheesville- 4 | 89.32% | 57.90% | 26.03% | 13.35% | Contender |
| Corinth- 3 | 87.46% | 51.63% | 27.25% | 12.72% | Contender |
| Catskill- 6 | 79.50% | 41.10% | 20.44% | 8.92% | Dark Horse |
| La Salle- 5 | 72.06% | 32.76% | 11.95% | 5.05% | Dark Horse |
| Tamarac- 7 | 60.45% | 15.55% | 5.05% | 1.34% | Long Shot |
| Johnstown- 8 | 52.56% | 9.70% | 3.19% | 0.91% | Long Shot |
| Granville- 9 | 47.44% | 7.96% | 2.45% | 0.65% | Long Shot |
| Greenville- 10 | 39.55% | 7.10% | 1.70% | 0.32% | Long Shot |
| Schuylerville- 12 | 27.94% | 7.15% | 1.34% | 0.30% | Long Shot |
| Hoosick Falls- 11 | 20.50% | 4.82% | 1.04% | 0.18% | Long Shot |
| Rensselaer- 14 | 12.54% | 2.46% | 0.38% | 0.04% | Long Shot |
| Fonda- 13 | 10.68% | 2.20% | 0.22% | 0.03% | Long Shot |
A few questions based on the numbers:
Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?
Yes, #1 seed Mechanicville. The Red Raiders finished the season at 17-3 and own an impressive win over Stillwater, one of top small school teams in the area. Tanner Eiseman, and Molly DiSiena lead the team in scoring but are helped by Elle Richardson, Olivia Dowd and Madison Couser.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below the top contenders that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?
Seeds 2-6 can make noise in this tournament. #2 Coxsackie Athens is on a 13 game winning streak and coming off a Patroon Conference title coached by Sarah Wlodarczyk. The Riverhawks are led by Baileigh Briski who is approaching 2000 career points. Regan Hellen and Cam Slater are key components as well. Corinth has a close loss earlier in the season vs. Mechanicville, Voorheesville is the defending champ in this class and are playing their best basketball of the season. La Salle knocked off Coxsackie Athens when they were fully healthy earlier in the year and are trending in that direction now. Catskill is well coached but they are a young squad.
Additional thoughts:
Early round games to keep an eye on: The 8/9 game between. Johnstown (52.56%) vs Granville (47.44%)
🏀 Class B Girls — Model Snapshot
🔥 At a Glance
-
Top Title Chances:
Mechanicville (34.14%)
Coxsackie-Athens (22.06%)
Voorheesville (13.35%)
Corinth (12.72%) -
🎢 Chaos Index (Top 3 Combined): 69.55%
→ Lean Chalk -
⚡ Strong Top Four Tier:
Four teams above 12% championship equity.
🎯 Model Read
Class B Girls projects with a clear favorite, but not an overwhelming one.
Mechanicville leads at 34.14%, yet Coxsackie-Athens sits firmly within range at 22.06%. The next two seeds, Voorheesville and Corinth, both carry double-digit title probability, creating a legitimate four-team championship tier.
Unlike the more dominant brackets, this class shows depth in the semifinal range.
🚨 Upset Alert
Early-round stability holds for the top two seeds.
However:
-
Catskill (6 seed) projects at 8.92% championship equity.
-
La Salle (5 seed) sits at 5.05%.
The 3–6 seed range could reshape the semifinal field.
🎯 Seed vs Model Check
-
The model validates the #1 seed — Mechanicville leads clearly.
-
Seeds 3 and 4 (Corinth and Voorheesville) are nearly interchangeable in title equity.
-
The 5/6 seeds project closer to contenders than typical long shots.
This bracket largely follows seed order but shows compression in the middle tier.
🏀 Bottom Line
Class B Girls leans toward chalk at the top but carries enough depth to produce competitive semifinals. Mechanicville holds the edge, yet the four-team championship tier keeps this bracket from being predictable.
Click team name for season results.
| Canajoharie | B |
| Catskill | B |
| Chatham | B |
| Corinth | B |
| Coxsackie-Athens | B |
| Fonda | B |
| Granville | B |
| Greenville | B |
| Hoosick Falls | B |
| Johnstown | B |
| La Salle | B |
| Mechanicville | B |
| Schuylerville | B |
| Taconic Hills | B |
| Tamarac | B |
| Voorheesville | B |
| Watervliet | B |
Class C
Sectional brackets. Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings and thoughts on each classification.
Full Bracket Projections
| Class C Girls | Winning | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| Rd 16 | QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Greenwich- 1 | 99.78% | 93.19% | 84.96% | 59.77% | Favorite |
| Stillwater- 2 | 98.98% | 86.67% | 65.25% | 28.70% | Favorite |
| Berne-Knox- 3 | 97.36% | 74.89% | 26.19% | 6.92% | Dark Horse |
| Whitehall- 5 | 78.18% | 49.29% | 7.19% | 1.95% | Long Shot |
| Mayfield- 4 | 83.71% | 40.48% | 4.39% | 0.93% | Long Shot |
| Maple Hill- 7 | 79.61% | 12.42% | 4.69% | 0.68% | Long Shot |
| Lake George- 6 | 62.65% | 17.72% | 2.99% | 0.37% | Long Shot |
| OESJ- 9 | 50.00% | 3.40% | 1.54% | 0.29% | Long Shot |
| Galway- 8 | 50.00% | 3.40% | 1.54% | 0.29% | Long Shot |
| Hoosic Valley- 11 | 37.35% | 7.07% | 0.75% | 0.06% | Long Shot |
| Waterford- 12 | 21.82% | 7.52% | 0.32% | 0.03% | Long Shot |
| Warrensburg- 10 | 20.39% | 0.76% | 0.10% | 0.00% | Long Shot |
| Cambridge- 13 | 16.29% | 2.71% | 0.05% | 0.00% | Long Shot |
| NDBG- 15 | 1.02% | 0.15% | 0.01% | 0.00% | Long Shot |
| Schoharie- 14 | 2.64% | 0.32% | 0.01% | 0.00% | Long Shot |
| Kipp Charter- 16 | 0.22% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | Long Shot |
A few questions based on the numbers:
Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?
Yes. Greenwich and Stillwater. They met in last year's title game with Stillwater winning its first ever title and advancing to the State Title game. These two faced off twice already this season and they split. Looks like a collision course for round three if the seeds hold true to form. Stillwater is currently on a 10 game winning streak and Greenwich has won 5 in a row. Names to keep and eye on for the two teams. Greenwich: Brooke Kuzmich, Bailee and Jordan Wolfe. Stillwater: Addison Thornton, Maddie Chatt and Andie Luskin.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below the top contenders that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?
Berne Knox, Whitehall and Mayfield have had outstanding seasons up to this point and are in-line to take on the two favorites in the final four. BKW is led by Molly Shaver and Olivia Kirker in scoring. Whitehall is currently on an impressive 13 game winning streak for Coach Boyd Hunt. Mayfield has Brianna Iannuzzi and Abigal Powers as their star power.
Additional thoughts:
The 8/9 game between OESJ (50.00%) vs Galway (50.00%) should be a fun watch.
🏀 Class C Girls — Model Snapshot
🔥 At a Glance
-
Top Title Chances:
Greenwich (59.77%)
Stillwater (28.70%)
Berne-Knox (6.92%) -
🎢 Chaos Index (Top 3 Combined): 95.39%
→ Extreme Chalk -
⚡ Two-Team Separation:
Greenwich and Stillwater combine for nearly 88% of title equity.
🎯 Model Read
Class C Girls projects as one of the most top-heavy brackets on the board.
Greenwich carries 59.77% championship probability — a dominant position. Stillwater sits clearly second at 28.70%, and together the top two control nearly 88% of the title picture.
After that, the drop-off is steep. No other team exceeds 7% championship equity.
🚨 Upset Alert
Early-round stability is overwhelming:
-
The top three seeds all project above 97% in Round of 16.
-
Most volatility is confined to lower-tier placement games, not the championship path.
The semifinal round is likely where the bracket tightens — not before.
🎯 Seed vs Model Check
-
The model strongly validates the top two seeds.
-
No lower seed carries meaningful championship equity.
This bracket aligns tightly with seeding.
🏀 Bottom Line
Class C Girls is defined by a dominant two-team race. Greenwich enters with clear control, while Stillwater remains the only realistic challenger. The championship path is narrow and heavily concentrated at the top. Any team other than these two in the final would be considered a huge upset.
Click team name for season results.
| Berlin-New Lebanon | C |
| Berne-Knox | C |
| Cambridge | C |
| Galway | C |
| Greenwich | C |
| Hadley-Luzerne | C |
| Hoosic Valley | C |
| Kipp Charter | C |
| Lake George | C |
| Maple Hill | C |
| Mayfield | C |
| Middleburgh | C |
| NDBG | C |
| OESJ | C |
| Rensselaer | C |
| Schoharie | C |
| Stillwater | C |
| Warrensburg | C |
| Waterford | C |
| Whitehall | C |
Class D
Sectional brackets. Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings and thoughts on each classification.
Full Bracket Projections
| Class D Girls | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Northville- 1 | 94.48% | 69.71% | 40.83% | Favorite |
| Saratoga Catholic- 2 | 88.10% | 55.10% | 29.72% | Favorite |
| Hartford- 3 | 80.14% | 38.35% | 18.10% | Contender |
| Argyle- 4 | 50.02% | 14.69% | 5.06% | Dark Horse |
| Duanesburg- 5 | 49.98% | 14.67% | 5.05% | Dark Horse |
| Mekeel C.A.- 6 | 19.86% | 4.00% | 0.77% | Long Shot |
| Salem- 7 | 11.90% | 2.54% | 0.39% | Long Shot |
| Germantown- 8 | 5.52% | 0.93% | 0.09% | Long Shot |
A few questions based on the numbers:
Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?
No. Northville and Saratoga Catholic share the favorite nod in this bracket. Northville is paced by Izzy Colon, Leah Valovic and Keira Mackey. The Saints of Spa Catholic have a strong 1-2 punch of Sophia Ryan and Addison Whitbeck.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below the top contenders that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?
The #3-5 seeds of Hartford, Argyle and Duanesburg loom right behind the top two.
Additional thoughts:
Early game to watch. Argyle (50.02%) vs Duanesburg (49.98%).
🏀 Class D Girls — Model Snapshot
🔥 At a Glance
-
Top Title Chances:
Northville (40.83%)
Saratoga Catholic (29.72%)
Hartford (18.10%) -
🎢 Chaos Index (Top 3 Combined): 88.65%
→ Chalk Heavy -
⚡ Clear Top Tier:
Three teams control nearly 89% of championship equity.
🎯 Model Read
Class D Girls projects as a concentrated bracket at the top.
Northville leads at 40.83%, with Saratoga Catholic firmly in range at 29.72%. Together, the top two seeds account for over 70% of the title probability.
Hartford forms a legitimate secondary challenger tier at 18.10%, while equity drops sharply beyond the top three.
🚨 Upset Alert
Early-round stability favors the top seeds:
-
Northville and Saratoga Catholic project strongly into the semifinals.
-
The 4/5 matchup (Argyle vs Duanesburg) is essentially even, but neither projects as a significant title threat.
Any meaningful disruption would likely need to occur in the semifinal round.
🎯 Seed vs Model Check
-
The model validates the top two seeds cleanly.
-
Hartford (3 seed) holds clear separation over the 4/5 tier.
-
No lower seed exceeds 5% championship probability.
This bracket aligns strongly with seed structure.
🏀 Bottom Line
Class D Girls is top-driven, with Northville holding the statistical edge and Saratoga Catholic as the primary challenger. The championship path narrows quickly after the top tier, making semifinal matchups critical.
Click team name for season results.
| Argyle | D |
| Duanesburg | D |
| Fort Edward | D |
| Germantown | D |
| Hartford | D |
| Mekeel C.A. | D |
| North Warren | D |
| Northville | D |
| Salem | D |
| Saratoga Catholic | D |
